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Expert picks and best bets: Where's the value at UFC 303 and PFL?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira steps up for the promotion on short notice once again as he puts his title on the line against former champ Jiří Procházka in the main event at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Pereira, ranked No. 3 in ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, is coming off a first-round knockout win over Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300 in April. Five of his seven UFC wins have come by knockout. Procházka, ranked No. 2 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight following a second-round TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300. Both fighters stepped up to take a short-notice fight against each other at UFC 295 last November after the initial main event between heavyweight champ Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic was postponed. The fight between Pereira and Procházka was booked after Conor McGregor backed out of his fight with Michael Chandler due to a broken toe.
The PFL is also in action this weekend, as the promotion hosts its final event of the 2024 PFL regular season featuring the welterweights and featherweights on Friday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
In the main event, 2022 featherweight champion Brendan Loughnane looks to solidify his place in the 2024 PFL playoffs as he takes on Justin Gonzales in the main event.
Brett Okamoto spoke to UFC light heavyweight and ESPN analyst Anthony Smith to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insight and analysis on the UFC main event and other intriguing bets they like on this weekend's fight cards.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka
Anthony Smith, UFC light heavyweight and ESPN analyst
Tale Of The Tape
PEREIRA | PROCHÁZKA | |
---|---|---|
Age | 37.0 | 31.7 |
Height | 76.0 | 75.0 |
Reach | 79.0 | 80.0 |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Last Fight | April 13, 2024 | April 13, 2024 |
How Procházka wins: He's got to create some chaos. He has to play a dangerous game. Pereira can be hurt and Procházka has the power to hurt him. Can Procházka win? One hundred percent. He's got the power to knock out anybody, he's a wild man, he's got the right mentality. But he has to be chaotic and he has to get Alex square. If Pereira is in his stance and just stalking him down, he can knock out a lot of guys like that. But if you get him turning, turning, turning, trying to find you, you can catch him in one of those transitions.
X Factor: Familiarity. They just fought in November. A lot of times, it's a slow burn at first between two dangerous guys, but because they've felt what each other has, this fight gets going faster. And that benefits Pereira because he's felt the wrestling and the power. There are no surprises anymore.
Prediction: Pereira by knockout, probably around the second round again.
Betting analysis
UFC 303: Pereira Vs. Procházka
Standup striking offense | Pereira | Procházka |
Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 4:1 | 2:1 |
Distance knockdown rate | 3.5% | 1.4% |
Head jab accuracy | 47% | 44% |
Head power accuracy | 45% | 49% |
Standup strike ratio (attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Wrestling and grappling | ||
TD attempts per minutes standing/clinch | 0.01 | 0.13 |
Takedown accuracy | 100% | 60% |
Advances per takedown/top control | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Opponent takedown attempts | 30 | 19 |
Takedown defense | 70% | 68% |
Share of fight time in ground control | 5% | 46% |
Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.20 | 0.11 |
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |