5 Fights on Tap for Tuesday Night

[carolinakid]

1st fight starts 805 pm eastern tv: espn plus

 

[carolinakid]

09/26/23 05:19:54pm Pacific

Fighting: Game 24947-24948

09/26 05:19 PM PDT MMA GAME #24947-24948 VINICIUS OLIVEIRA defeats VICTOR MADRIGAL by KO at 3:02 of the 1st round (UNDER 2.5)

 

[carolinakid]

09/26/23 05:50:33pm Pacific

Fighting: Game 24943-24944

09/26 05:50 PM PDT MMA GAME #24943-24944 ERNESTA KARECKAITE defeats CARLI JUDICE by split decision (OVER 2.5)

 

[KVB]

​

09/26/23 05:19:54pm Pacific

Fighting: Game 24947-24948

09/26 05:19 PM PDT MMA GAME #24947-24948 VINICIUS OLIVEIRA defeats VICTOR MADRIGAL by KO at 3:02 of the 1st round (UNDER 2.5)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1706826315888824663

 

[stevex]

Serious question about MMA in general. Besides the big dog that hit a couple of weekends ago, it seems like favorites hit all the time. True or false?

 

[carolinakid]

a lot of time Steve and the big moves hit a lot too

 

[KVB]

Slight to moderate favorites tend to get bet up from the slight favorite range and as the odds increase will, over many, many matches, underperform when it comes to expected win percentage based on those bet up odds.

The market gets pushed out of range.

That means that the slight to moderate underdogs, the opposite of those plays will actually overperform when compared to the odds offered. Over the last ten years, you could virtually blindly bet all underdogs from about a pickem to about +185 across UFC, Bellator, PFL and the old WSOF and profit.

This is what our research shows and this is the general area where value is created despite the vigorish charged.

 

[KVB]

I would add that the larger favorites do outperform their numbers but getting a good number there is very important. They can vary across the market quite a bit in the -400 and up ranges.