Best bets for Monday Night Football

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Best bets for Monday Night Football: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers​

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The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Chicago Bears to wrap up Week 9 on Monday Night Football (8:15 ET on ESPN).

This week, ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum and Anita Marks, along with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer up his best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.

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Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 39)​

Moody: In terms of total completions, Justin Fields' last two games have been his best, and he has thrown TD passes in three of his past four games. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 175 yards in Week 8 against the 49ers. In addition, Fields carried the ball 10 times for 103 yards in what was the best performance of his young career. With the Bears providing him more opportunities as a rusher, his positive momentum should continue against the Steelers.

Walter Payton was the last Chicago player to score a rushing and passing touchdown in a game (Week 15 of 1984, against the Packers). Fields has a good chance of reproducing this feat against the Steelers, who over the last five games have allowed Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow to average 228.4 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns.



Picks: Fields over 180.5 passing yards (-115), Fields over 37.5 total rushing yards (-110), Fields over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-200)

Moody: This season, Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 254.4 passing yards, with only one game surpassing 300. It's possible for him to finally eclipse that milestone against a Bears defense that allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for 322 yards and Jared Goff to throw for 299. That said, it's likely that Pittsburgh will heavily rely on RB Najee Harris both between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield.

This season, the rookie has averaged 25.3 opportunities (18.3 rushing attempts, 7 targets) and 107.4 total yards per game. Harris has been breathtaking and has demonstrated he's talented enough to overcome mediocre to subpar offensive line play. However, given Pittsburgh's matchup with Chicago in terms of run block win rate vs. run stop win rate, the Steelers' offensive line has the advantage. It looks like Harris is poised for a monster performance.

Over the past two games, Pat Freiermuth has caught 11 of 14 targets for 102 receiving yards. This season, Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 124.7 when targeting him. The absence of Eric Ebron on Monday night sets the stage for Freiermuth to flourish.

Picks: Harris over 79.5 rushing yards, Harris over 28.5 total receiving yards (-115), Freiermuth over 34.5 receiving yards

Marks: The Steelers are coming off of a bye week after winning their previous 3 games, compared to a Bears team heading into Pittsburgh on a Monday night (where Ben is 16-6) and losing their last 3. Justin Fields will have a rough night against this Steelers defense that is 3rd in pressure rate and sports a top-5 red zone defense. Expect Najee Harris to carry the rock often with much success, considering the Bears will be minus Khalil Mack.

Pick: Steelers -1, under 45 in two-team 6-point teaser, Steelers -1 with the Ravens -1.5 vs Miami (Thursday night), Fields under 31.5 longest completion, Harris over 79.5 rush yards (-115), D. Johnson over 6.5 rec (-105), Santos over 5.5 points

Schatz: I'm going both over and under on this game. For over, let's look at the game total of 39. I picked over on the Bears last week, noting that 39.5 was a really low total. They went over, in fact, and now we've got an even lower total for this week's game. It's fitting for a game between two great defenses, right? Well, no, because these aren't two great defenses. The Steelers rank only 12th in defensive DVOA so far this year and the Bears are just 21st. Obviously, the offensive struggles are also a big reason for this game to be listed with such a low over/under, but four Steelers games have gone over this number this season and another game (Week 1) hit it exactly.


For under, we're going to look at Allen Robinson. It's not just the quarterback play that has Robinson down this year; he just looks to be separating less than in past years. Robinson has just 37 yards over the last two weeks and has only gone over 40 yards in two of eight games this season.

Picks: Over 39, Allen Robinson under 37.5 receiving yards (-115)

Fulghum: Steelers RB Najee Harris has a tremendous game script and one of the best roles in the NFL. The total is low at just 39.5, but as a touchdown home favorite, the game script sets up well for Harris to get a usual dose of his heavy workload. Over his last five games the rookie is averaging better than 26 touches. The Bears defense has been torched by opposing RBs to the tune of 145.9 yards of offense per game.

Picks: Najee Harris over 113.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)