My stacking percentages forecast has Chargers winning this game outright.
The line has move toward my forecast, though there is a lot of trading left.
This forecast is 49-50-1 against the opening spread over the last 100 NFL games with as little as .1 points discrepancy against the market. In other words, a comparison that doesn't require a certain "distance" from the prediction to trigger a bet for that record.
Against the closing spread that record drops to 46-50-4.
Over the last 300 NFL plays this forecast is 157-140-3 against the closing spread, with no discrepency.
Against the moneyline, over the last 100 plays, this forecast is +3.32 units against the opening line and +.38 units against the closing line. Over the last 300 plays it is +4.68 and +1.30, respectively. I consider these numbers pretty good, and a bit lucky, considering that's against every game, basically no passing there. There was enough of an edge to beat that vig on a macro basis. That can be pretty tough to do against the closing line in the NFL.
Good Luck tonight Illini and congratulations on getting to the game, should be fun.
I wouldn't take the Cowboys to bounce back here, at least not in this spot.