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Checking in, headed to LA , going to Monday night football.

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,481
My stacking percentages forecast has Chargers winning this game outright.

The line has move toward my forecast, though there is a lot of trading left.

This forecast is 49-50-1 against the opening spread over the last 100 NFL games with as little as .1 points discrepancy against the market. In other words, a comparison that doesn't require a certain "distance" from the prediction to trigger a bet for that record.

Against the closing spread that record drops to 46-50-4.

Over the last 300 NFL plays this forecast is 157-140-3 against the closing spread, with no discrepency.

Against the moneyline, over the last 100 plays, this forecast is +3.32 units against the opening line and +.38 units against the closing line. Over the last 300 plays it is +4.68 and +1.30, respectively. I consider these numbers pretty good, and a bit lucky, considering that's against every game, basically no passing there. There was enough of an edge to beat that vig on a macro basis. That can be pretty tough to do against the closing line in the NFL.

Good Luck tonight Illini and congratulations on getting to the game, should be fun.

I wouldn't take the Cowboys to bounce back here, at least not in this spot.

:drinks:
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
15,888
My stacking percentages forecast has Chargers winning this game outright.

The line has move toward my forecast, though there is a lot of trading left.

This forecast is 49-50-1 against the opening spread over the last 100 NFL games with as little as .1 points discrepancy against the market. In other words, a comparison that doesn't require a certain "distance" from the prediction to trigger a bet for that record.

Against the closing spread that record drops to 46-50-4.

Over the last 300 NFL plays this forecast is 157-140-3 against the closing spread, with no discrepency.

Against the moneyline, over the last 100 plays, this forecast is +3.32 units against the opening line and +.38 units against the closing line. Over the last 300 plays it is +4.68 and +1.30, respectively. I consider these numbers pretty good, and a bit lucky, considering that's against every game, basically no passing there. There was enough of an edge to beat that vig on a macro basis. That can be pretty tough to do against the closing line in the NFL.

Good Luck tonight Illini and congratulations on getting to the game, should be fun.

I wouldn't take the Cowboys to bounce back here, at least not in this spot.

:drinks:
Wow, unreal write up here KVB aka the new and improved Justin7/ Ganch combined. God Bless you this fine day Sir!
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,481
Cowboys have been responding well after a loss over the last couple of years, their offense just blows up the scoreboard in a lot of those games.

That said, teams that get beat by the Niners are like 1-18 the next game. The thinking is that the Niners have a rough defense, not to mention some tough offensive players, and they just plain beat up the teams they play.
 
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