College Basketball Odds, Picks & Prediction (Tuesday, Nov. 22)

[biggins]

Texas Tech vs. Louisville​

Texas Tech Red Raiders​

Sure, it lost the game vs. Creighton, but Texas Tech didn’t by any means play poorly. The Bluejays are just that good.

In the first half, Creighton racked up 13 turnovers, and the Red Raiders led by as many as seven points early on. Daniel Batcho had the best game of his career, putting up 17 points for Tech.

And while Creighton really took over in the second half, it was still a solid performance for the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech’s defense has been its best asset so far this season, and that continued against the Bluejays.

What was really great to see from the Red Raiders was their offensive output against a solid defensive test. Four different played scored in double digits for Texas Tech, with Jaylon Tyson just missing the cut (nine points).

Texas Tech also posted a season low when it comes to turnovers, and as I mentioned, forced Creighton into committing a season high. It wasn’t enough to knock off the Bluejays, but it very well could be enough to hold off the lowly Cardinals.

Louisville Cardinals​

Sometimes getting away from all the noise can help a team. After starting 0-3 at home on the season, many believed this trip to Maui might be exactly what the Cardinals needed to get things back on track.

They somehow drifted even further away from the track most thought this Louisville team would be on coming into the season, losing by 26 to the Razorbacks.

And while hope for the Cardinals fades more and more each game, there were some slight positives to take away. After three games, Kamari Lands finally had his first points of the season, and once he got going, he didn’t stop.

Lands led the team in scoring against Arkansas. He also went perfect from the charity stripe and pulled down two rebounds. But outside of his performance, there was little to be excited about for the Cards.

This Louisville team is tough to watch. The biggest concern: I’m not sure how the Cardinals fix it. The team is struggling in all areas, and it’s from top to bottom.

Sure, Lands seems to have taken a step forward, but it’s going to take a lot more than just him. They’ve got less than 24 hours to try and refocus before they take on one of the toughest defensive teams in the country.

Texas Tech vs. Louisville Betting Pick​

Both of these teams lost on Monday, but those losses came in very different fashions.

I think Tech actually improved on what I’ve seen from it so far this season, while Louisville, which I didn’t think could get any worse, somehow made its season worse.

The Red Raiders are one of the top 20 teams in the country when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and I think that defense will overpower a Cardinals offense that continues to struggle.

Expect Tech to target Louisville’s turnover issues, as well. The Cardinals are turning the ball over on 26.2% of possessions (one of the 10 worst teams in the country).

When it comes to betting on this game, I think you’re safe backing Tech as high as a 15-point favorite. Both teams also rank outside the top 200 when it comes to Adjusted Tempo and struggle on the offensive end, so the under should be good at anything 133 or better.

However, there’s one specific area of this game I’m targeting.

The Red Raiders are averaging 39.3 points per game in the first half so far this season, ranking them inside the top 50. Louisville, meanwhile, is 293rd in the nation, allowing an average 37.7 points in the first half.

Texas Tech is even better at limiting teams in the first half than it is at scoring, holding opponents to a 28th-best 26 points per game. The Cardinals again fall at the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging a 240th-worst 30.7 points in the first half.

It’s a 24-hour turnaround to the next game for Tech, and even less for Louisville. I feel confident in the Tech defense to remain consistent in a less than ideal situation.

Back the Red Raiders in the first half as high as a seven-point favorite.

Pick: 1H Red Raiders -7 or better​

 

[biggins]

San Francisco vs. Wichita​

San Francisco Dons​

The Dons are potentially facing the harsh realities of life after success. San Francisco made the NCAA tournament last season, its first berth in the Big Dance in the 21st century.

Within weeks, the program saw most of its top contributors graduate and head coach Todd Golden leave for Florida. Golden, a promising 37-year old on the rise in the national coaching scene, continued what Kyle Smith developed at USF after Smith departed for a power-conference job at Washington State.

Despite the potential for doom-and-gloom, the Dons look to be in decent shape to contend in the WCC again this year.

Khalil Shabazz is back after adding 14 points per game last season. He’s the key cog offensively and should factor into the All-WCC picture when the season ends.

He’s aided by power-conference transfers looking to grow into bigger roles. Tyrell Roberts scored 11 points per game for Smith at Washington State last season and is already besting that number, notching 15.3 points per night early on this season.

Roberts forms a backcourt with Marcus Williams, a transfer on his third school in three years, most recently at Texas A&M.

Early on, the most encouraging sign is that new head coach Chris Gerlufsen isn’t overturning the apple cart that led to Smith and Golden’s success at USF. The Dons have been one of the most innovative, modern and analytically-driven programs in recent years and that doesn’t look to have changed.

Through five games, San Francisco is top-five in the nation in 3-point rate allowed and taken, with more than half its shots from outside the arc.

Combined with a top-20 tempo in the nation, the Dons can generate offense, wow viewers and make bookmakers set a high total.

Wichita State Shockers​

In his third year on the job, head coach Isaac Brown lost his top four scorers from last season, yet still had his sights set on a successful season.

To do so, he and his staff at Wichita State looked to mesh together talent from a variety of sources.

Returning from last year’s team, guard Craig Porter Jr. is leading the way offensively. Just a seven-point per game scorer last year, Porter has thrived in an increased role. He’s averaged 14 points per game, opening the season with a 22-point outing.

He’s joined in the starting lineup by James Rojas, an Alabama transfer who brings versatility to the frontcourt.

Rojas is joined on the interior by JUCO transfer Jaykwon Walton, who is posting double figures in scoring early in the season. Walton is a former Georgia Bulldog, back at the D-I level after a stint away last season.

In total, the Shockers have talent, but most of it is concentrated on the defensive end of the floor. In four games this season, Wichita State has cracked the 60-point barrier just once.

On a per possession basis, it hasn’t been much better. Wichita has only scored 1.0 points per possession once in four tries and ranks 142nd offensively. Scoring 57 points, thanks in part to 4-of-24 shooting from long range, in a loss to Alcorn State didn’t help matters.

The Shockers can win games defensively, and have so far this season. Wichita State is only shooting 23.5% from outside the arc, somehow better than its opponents at 22.8%.

We’re likely to see regression in both regards there.

---

San Francisco vs. Wichita State Betting Pick​

That shooting regression is the main thing I’m watching for when this game tips off on Tuesday.

Wichita State has been lucky to only face 22% shooting from outside so far this season. Some of that is due to active defense, but a number like that is far more likely to be coincidental.

Only one of the Shockers’ four opponents this season is making better than 34% from outside this season — the Alcorn State team that beat Wichita State.

The trigger-happy Dons will be more than ready to test the Shockers’ luck and are likely ready for some shooting improvement of their own, sitting at just 32% from deep this season despite a roster with some shooting talent.

Wichita State isn’t going to shoot under 25% from deep all season either, yet doesn’t have the kind of shooters to expect a sudden influx of made 3s.

With a sluggish offense that doesn’t have any easy answers, the Shockers should struggle to keep pace on the scoreboard Tuesday.

I’ll take the Dons.

Pick: San Francisco ML -110​

 

[Bubbles]

Texas Tech vs. Louisville​

Texas Tech Red Raiders​

Sure, it lost the game vs. Creighton, but Texas Tech didn’t by any means play poorly. The Bluejays are just that good.

In the first half, Creighton racked up 13 turnovers, and the Red Raiders led by as many as seven points early on. Daniel Batcho had the best game of his career, putting up 17 points for Tech.

And while Creighton really took over in the second half, it was still a solid performance for the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech’s defense has been its best asset so far this season, and that continued against the Bluejays.

What was really great to see from the Red Raiders was their offensive output against a solid defensive test. Four different played scored in double digits for Texas Tech, with Jaylon Tyson just missing the cut (nine points).

Texas Tech also posted a season low when it comes to turnovers, and as I mentioned, forced Creighton into committing a season high. It wasn’t enough to knock off the Bluejays, but it very well could be enough to hold off the lowly Cardinals.

Louisville Cardinals​

Sometimes getting away from all the noise can help a team. After starting 0-3 at home on the season, many believed this trip to Maui might be exactly what the Cardinals needed to get things back on track.

They somehow drifted even further away from the track most thought this Louisville team would be on coming into the season, losing by 26 to the Razorbacks.

And while hope for the Cardinals fades more and more each game, there were some slight positives to take away. After three games, Kamari Lands finally had his first points of the season, and once he got going, he didn’t stop.

Lands led the team in scoring against Arkansas. He also went perfect from the charity stripe and pulled down two rebounds. But outside of his performance, there was little to be excited about for the Cards.

This Louisville team is tough to watch. The biggest concern: I’m not sure how the Cardinals fix it. The team is struggling in all areas, and it’s from top to bottom.

Sure, Lands seems to have taken a step forward, but it’s going to take a lot more than just him. They’ve got less than 24 hours to try and refocus before they take on one of the toughest defensive teams in the country.

Texas Tech vs. Louisville Betting Pick​

Both of these teams lost on Monday, but those losses came in very different fashions.

I think Tech actually improved on what I’ve seen from it so far this season, while Louisville, which I didn’t think could get any worse, somehow made its season worse.

The Red Raiders are one of the top 20 teams in the country when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and I think that defense will overpower a Cardinals offense that continues to struggle.

Expect Tech to target Louisville’s turnover issues, as well. The Cardinals are turning the ball over on 26.2% of possessions (one of the 10 worst teams in the country).

When it comes to betting on this game, I think you’re safe backing Tech as high as a 15-point favorite. Both teams also rank outside the top 200 when it comes to Adjusted Tempo and struggle on the offensive end, so the under should be good at anything 133 or better.

However, there’s one specific area of this game I’m targeting.

The Red Raiders are averaging 39.3 points per game in the first half so far this season, ranking them inside the top 50. Louisville, meanwhile, is 293rd in the nation, allowing an average 37.7 points in the first half.

Texas Tech is even better at limiting teams in the first half than it is at scoring, holding opponents to a 28th-best 26 points per game. The Cardinals again fall at the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging a 240th-worst 30.7 points in the first half.

It’s a 24-hour turnaround to the next game for Tech, and even less for Louisville. I feel confident in the Tech defense to remain consistent in a less than ideal situation.

Back the Red Raiders in the first half as high as a seven-point favorite.

Pick: 1H Red Raiders -7 or better​

both teams just lost yesterday. i am not expecting a lot for this game but i like the under 130.

 

[biggins]

2-0 But nothings easy in hoops no lead is safe but USF hung on.

Props to Bubbles also nailing the under with eas.

 

[Bubbles]

2-0 But nothings easy in hoops no lead is safe but USF hung on.

Props to Bubbles also nailing the under with eas.

it's very rare for me to win hoops wagers. thanks for sharing and congrats biggins.