thefantasyking7
- Joined
- Apr 21, 2022
- Messages
- 11
Stuttgart Open
Ons Jabeur vs Paula Badosa Gibert
6:30 AM
This line has undergone some SERIOUS line movement; starting with Badosa as high as a -145 favorite to now Jabeur being the woman seemingly expected to win —- and I think we got the “public” (whatever that means in Tennis) taking far too much consideration into how the pair of women played yesterday. Because while Jabeur cruised, Badosa had to battle —- and while some might see that as a sign of concern, I couldn’t care less.Because the success Jabeur has enjoyed both at this event, and in general, has everything to do with her ability to control the baseline/play aggressively. When her opposition hits the ball deep from the baseline, Jabeur’s variety of angles and shots are far less useful. Like a fighter who can only move forward —- when her pace and depth are matched from the baseline, the Tunisian can really struggle.
I just don’t see Badosa letting Jabeur control the baseline, nor will she be pushed around the court in the manner that Jabeur did to Kasatkina. And while Jabeur was able to rush Marketa Vondrousova in her first-round match due to the quicker conditions, Badosa is more versatile and can blunt Jabeur’s power.
In terms of Elo ratings, it’s important to note that Badosa’s overall and clay-court Elo are higher than Jabeur’s —- and I just see Badosa being able to frustrate Jabeur with her consistent depth and not give her many opportunities to attack and be on the front foot.
Play —- Badosa ML -114
Badosa in Straight Sets +185
ATP Barcelona
Cameron Norrie vs Marton Fucsovics
7:20AM
Norrie has been playing some of the best tennis of his life, and in this matchup against Fucsovics, I see him being both the better player, as well as the man in the better form. Because with Norrie already beating Fucsovics in their trio of prior meetings, as well as Norrie’s apparent ability to play well on clay —- a true rarity for Britsh players —— I just don’t see a way in which Hungarian advances. No real deep analysis on this one —- better player, in great form, a little bit undervalued in this spot considering the circumstances. Just take the bait…..Play —— Cameron Norrie ML (-147)
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