Understanding why a line opens where it opens and moves to where it close is very important and creating forecasts accordingly is very helpful for long term winning. This I am good at.
But it's more important, at this point, for most bettors reading this to worry less about picking the winner of game and focus more on picking winning bets.
There is a difference there.
Also, something I've brought up in a couple of videos should be considered.
This this is the final slide of "Knowing Your Markets"...
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So beating the closing line can be important, but it's not everything. I tracked an untold amount of plays and Funds at SBR and tracked the closing line comparison for each play.
So for the play I was betting I considered the closing line comparison as yet another metric to judge the health of the selections but, some subsets of plays required more time to determine a play, like the Contrarian Funds.
I did not track a closing line comparison for those Contrarian Funds as they really weren't designed to beat the closer even if they were profitable Funds and strategies.
For the most part, bettors here at BMR should try to get the best line available to them when they've made the decision to pull the trigger and be happy if the line moves towards their prediction or play.