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Do you guys keep track of you beating Closers?

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JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,498
Venditto tells me I’m wasting my time when I do this. His bankroll much larger than mine so it’s hard to argue with him about it.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
Understanding why a line opens where it opens and moves to where it close is very important and creating forecasts accordingly is very helpful for long term winning. This I am good at.

But it's more important, at this point, for most bettors reading this to worry less about picking the winner of game and focus more on picking winning bets.

There is a difference there.

Also, something I've brought up in a couple of videos should be considered.

This this is the final slide of "Knowing Your Markets"...

1683650352638.png

So beating the closing line can be important, but it's not everything. I tracked an untold amount of plays and Funds at SBR and tracked the closing line comparison for each play.

So for the play I was betting I considered the closing line comparison as yet another metric to judge the health of the selections but, some subsets of plays required more time to determine a play, like the Contrarian Funds.

I did not track a closing line comparison for those Contrarian Funds as they really weren't designed to beat the closer even if they were profitable Funds and strategies.

For the most part, bettors here at BMR should try to get the best line available to them when they've made the decision to pull the trigger and be happy if the line moves towards their prediction or play.

:hattip:
 

slickfazzer

slickfazzer

Joined
Jan 24, 2023
Messages
3,606
A simple theme to follow is if you are aways a point worse than a book like bookmaker, Circa, or some others figure out why, and work to correct it.

If you overspend on anything in life, you are not doing as well as you could be.
 

chilidog

chilidog

Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
285
Beating the no-vig closer is all that matters.

Most sportsbooks will limit you very fast for beating the no-vig closer, even over 10 bets (and has nothing to do with you being profitable or not).

On the other hand, most sportsbooks will not limit you if you won 10 bets in a row, but you didn't beat the no-vig closer.

Why do you think that is?
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
41,949
Understanding why a line opens where it opens and moves to where it close is very important and creating forecasts accordingly is very helpful for long term winning. This I am good at.

But it's more important, at this point, for most bettors reading this to worry less about picking the winner of game and focus more on picking winning bets.

There is a difference there.

Also, something I've brought up in a couple of videos should be considered.

This this is the final slide of "Knowing Your Markets"...

View attachment 12636

So beating the closing line can be important, but it's not everything. I tracked an untold amount of plays and Funds at SBR and tracked the closing line comparison for each play.

So for the play I was betting I considered the closing line comparison as yet another metric to judge the health of the selections but, some subsets of plays required more time to determine a play, like the Contrarian Funds.

I did not track a closing line comparison for those Contrarian Funds as they really weren't designed to beat the closer even if they were profitable Funds and strategies.

For the most part, bettors here at BMR should try to get the best line available to them when they've made the decision to pull the trigger and be happy if the line moves towards their prediction or play.

:hattip:
This guy is at a different level than most of us. :yes:
 
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