Does anyone ever beat injuries?

[jjgold]

Basically getting the number before the line moves

books hate that

 

[KVB]

Only if I can calculate my own adjustment or can see a window for buying and selling back on the move.

Rushing to bet because of an injury just in hopes of beating the closer can be a bad move.

We've seen injury bets like that backfire in the NBA more times than I can count, lol.

 

[KVB]

Great example was Houston and Hardin in the NBA.

Hardin announced as out often moved the line but Houston then went on to play better than expected as a team.

Many bettors can relate to that one.

 

[KVB]

Only if I can calculate my own adjustment

This can be important as it allows us to see when overreactions occur.

I have oftentimes bought a line after it's move from an injury announcement as I saw the move as going too far and I would pick up the other side, against the expected move, for the value the overreaction created.

 

[KVB]

One last thought, key numbers are important as some moves, like in football, can be a lot more significant than other moves.

A -7.5 move to -9.5 in NFL, while 2 full points, isn't as significant as a -2.5 move to -3.5 or even -4, a 1 or 1.5 point move, because of the key numbers getting captured in the move.

Most bettors understand this, but many still do not.

 

[jjgold]

Believe it or not, you could make a living, but you have to be watching tons of news media and be so quick to log onto a sports book

 

[KVB]

Believe it or not, you could make a living, but you have to be watching tons of news media and be so quick to log onto a sports book

Like you said, books don't like that too much.

 

[BobbyFK]

I've noticed sometimes with star players out the team actually ends up playing better. You would think the opposite would be true

 

[BobbyFK]

Believe it or not, you could make a living, but you have to be watching tons of news media and be so quick to log onto a sports book

Nowadays with Twitter and social media you have information just as fast as the books

 

[KVB]

I've noticed sometimes with star players out the team actually ends up playing better. You would think the opposite would be true

Depends on the sport, but definitely more pronounced in basketball.

 

[KingKolzig]

Great example was Houston and Hardin in the NBA.

Hardin announced as out often moved the line but Houston then went on to play better than expected as a team.

Many bettors can relate to that one.

yep that houston team was the best NBA team ive ever seen. wide open looks all day. they led GSW 3-2 then cp3 tore his hammy. huge shame

regular season anyone went down they didnt miss a beat. i think they started the season 19-1

 

[BobbyFK]

Depends on the sport, but definitely more pronounced in basketball.

Exactly, that's where it's most notable for me

 

[Wagerallsports]

Injuries & blown/bad calls

Can't cap those things

 

[KVB]

Injuries & blown/bad calls

Can't cap those things

I disagree.

Those things are built into historical results. Those same results used for capping.

Blown and bad calls are a part of the game, helping to create the results in a box score. The same for injuries that happen during the game.

Injured players have a replacement, so injuries and sitting before a game are easier to deal with. Maybe less so in prediction, but definitely after the fact, as well as getting data on players you outherwise might not.

It all depends on how in depth your breakdown of a game becomes.

 

[KingKolzig]

i think kawhis last season with s.antonio he got hurt during the game. literally made the live line from like -4 (they were leading) to like +14 he was all they had