Does Texas Close It Out Tonight?
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Wagerallsports
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Probably so JJ
Bats are hot
Bats are hot
stormtrooper8
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Wanna see it go 7
Wagerallsports
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Said I wouldn't bet anymore MLB this season
WTH changed my mind & taking Arizona as a small play
WTH changed my mind & taking Arizona as a small play
I've been sharing my work and market analysis on these WS games so I'll share today as well.
Obviously, by looking at my MLB and also Football posts about games and forecasts, you can see I'm offering a different type of analysis. I'm not talking about whether or not so and so QB or D can hold up when it's their wives' times of month, etc. I'm talking market levels and numbers, almost exclusively, with an opinion on that state of the market.
I'm a market analyst working with good info and forecasts, and I've been doing it for a long time. I hope my info, while a different type of write up than what others post, is appreciated by at least a few you.
Obviously, by looking at my MLB and also Football posts about games and forecasts, you can see I'm offering a different type of analysis. I'm not talking about whether or not so and so QB or D can hold up when it's their wives' times of month, etc. I'm talking market levels and numbers, almost exclusively, with an opinion on that state of the market.
I'm a market analyst working with good info and forecasts, and I've been doing it for a long time. I hope my info, while a different type of write up than what others post, is appreciated by at least a few you.
No. This is the world series. There is no resting of pitchers in my opinion
For Game 5, I have Texas winning with a probability of 55.12% to Zonas 44.87%
This equates to a no vig line of about -/+123 with Texas favored to win. There's not to say in movement, but if anything the line has moved against the forecast movement has been minimal.
We still have very tightly traded market and, as presented, many forecasts see value on Texas here.
Texas bats are hot but to keep those probabilites profitable to the market you have to adjust for it, and sometimes can only adjust so far. For example, when forecasting with extremes, there can be a diminishing rate of return. The bigger the overlay, at high overlays, are not necessarily better.
Forecasts across the board have to deal with hot Texas road bats and a recent 10 run scored early innings, etc. You can't keep it, you can't just toss it either. We're not talking overlays yet, just the extremes in metrics when building the forecast. Recrod breaking territory in any mteric can be unpredictable.
So forecasts, relative to the market, can stretch a bit in these circumstances and they do to a degree all year long as streaks come and go in MLB.
Sometimes that stretches the market, sometimes it offsets something on the other side and prevents a stretch. It happens all the time, and we have to rely on other metrics to sort it out. Here's what I think.
I think there is a lot of volume on this game and a lot of pressure for Zona to not get shut out at home. In fact there are pressures on both sides, evening out the pressure, that are too many to go into. I think this presents a situation where the market stays tightly traded and we all know what would happen to an Arizona underdog in the market. That constraint helps to keep Texas low, but it doesn't need to be this low.
The situation is that a case could be made that the market is taking a position in Arizona for this game. It may not be as evenly traded as it appears as current market seems to have Texas on sale a bit. Some originators did have Texas more expensive in many cases, and Zona a better price too, but that was quickly remedied by the bookmaking portion of the room and was the small, if any, move against the Forecast. Many books opened with some move already built in.
I have not bet this game yet, I am gathering info still and if those other market reading metrics and probability corners of my office call for it, I will be looking at Arizona. The market could blink with Texas money, that's what I would expect. The timing of the blink could matter.
There could also be no blink.
Either way, that blink only makes Zona a better deal and could be in striking range. So there is time.
So yes, for this game, I'm not seeing enough layover on the Texas -123 with a -105 or so (-104, -106) to pull the trigger on Texas because there still may be contrarian adjustments at my disposal.
I often talked about contrarian adjustments back when I was tracking 1000s of plays in the Forum.
Once again, a tightly traded market and a line I'm watching closely. But this time, it's not a Moneyline Fund play, it's a Contrarian Play that we are looking at.
These are two different bankrolls, intentionally separated, in my book of business. The presented Forecast of -/+123 no vig may not measure up as it has recently against the close of the market, but that doesn't mean it didn't tell us something.
This equates to a no vig line of about -/+123 with Texas favored to win. There's not to say in movement, but if anything the line has moved against the forecast movement has been minimal.
We still have very tightly traded market and, as presented, many forecasts see value on Texas here.
Texas bats are hot but to keep those probabilites profitable to the market you have to adjust for it, and sometimes can only adjust so far. For example, when forecasting with extremes, there can be a diminishing rate of return. The bigger the overlay, at high overlays, are not necessarily better.
Forecasts across the board have to deal with hot Texas road bats and a recent 10 run scored early innings, etc. You can't keep it, you can't just toss it either. We're not talking overlays yet, just the extremes in metrics when building the forecast. Recrod breaking territory in any mteric can be unpredictable.
So forecasts, relative to the market, can stretch a bit in these circumstances and they do to a degree all year long as streaks come and go in MLB.
Sometimes that stretches the market, sometimes it offsets something on the other side and prevents a stretch. It happens all the time, and we have to rely on other metrics to sort it out. Here's what I think.
I think there is a lot of volume on this game and a lot of pressure for Zona to not get shut out at home. In fact there are pressures on both sides, evening out the pressure, that are too many to go into. I think this presents a situation where the market stays tightly traded and we all know what would happen to an Arizona underdog in the market. That constraint helps to keep Texas low, but it doesn't need to be this low.
The situation is that a case could be made that the market is taking a position in Arizona for this game. It may not be as evenly traded as it appears as current market seems to have Texas on sale a bit. Some originators did have Texas more expensive in many cases, and Zona a better price too, but that was quickly remedied by the bookmaking portion of the room and was the small, if any, move against the Forecast. Many books opened with some move already built in.
I have not bet this game yet, I am gathering info still and if those other market reading metrics and probability corners of my office call for it, I will be looking at Arizona. The market could blink with Texas money, that's what I would expect. The timing of the blink could matter.
There could also be no blink.
Either way, that blink only makes Zona a better deal and could be in striking range. So there is time.
So yes, for this game, I'm not seeing enough layover on the Texas -123 with a -105 or so (-104, -106) to pull the trigger on Texas because there still may be contrarian adjustments at my disposal.
I often talked about contrarian adjustments back when I was tracking 1000s of plays in the Forum.
Once again, a tightly traded market and a line I'm watching closely. But this time, it's not a Moneyline Fund play, it's a Contrarian Play that we are looking at.
These are two different bankrolls, intentionally separated, in my book of business. The presented Forecast of -/+123 no vig may not measure up as it has recently against the close of the market, but that doesn't mean it didn't tell us something.
DiggityDaggityDo
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- Oct 30, 2021
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Texas ML
Texas RL
Writeup: Deez Nutz
Texas RL
Writeup: Deez Nutz
This has been the biggest discrepency the forecast has had between these two teams for the whole World Series.
At the same time, this has been the most 50-50 that the market has had trading for the whole world series.
So the Forecast finally determines some separation, yet the market says they are equal as ever.
At the risk of sounding crass, we're in a Turtle Twat market and Katie Couric's ass can't compete with the tightness.
Nomsayin'?
At the same time, this has been the most 50-50 that the market has had trading for the whole world series.
So the Forecast finally determines some separation, yet the market says they are equal as ever.
At the risk of sounding crass, we're in a Turtle Twat market and Katie Couric's ass can't compete with the tightness.
Nomsayin'?
Brock Landers
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Texas hasn't lost ANY road games at all in the playoffs....
Wagerallsports
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Dbacks with a chance here
Wagerallsports
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They might strand 2nd & 3rd
Wagerallsports
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Nope didn't get them in
Won't beat Texas like that
Won't beat Texas like that
Wagerallsports
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Gallen doing his job
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