Low-key points bolded. for TL;DRs
-------
All public info. is mostly useless by nature.
% consensus % tickets dont mean chit / inaccurate.
need a premium service like donbest and whatnot, to even get past break even 54.5% @ -110 lines.
...if ur that kind of guy. and like to catch steam be4 "value" / +EV is gone ( volume bettors )
---------
If u knew the %tickets on each side and % $ on each side.
and u were behind the screen of the bookmaker, u would easily decipher the "most likely" result. (industry sharp)
where u dont even have to know a single player's name. (insider trading)
the big books, already know this. all they're trying to do is attract the most action on the "wrong side" as much as possible.
----------
only line movement that matters is at openers / closers time.
once, their info is abundantly available & early line stabilizes thru profiling sharp $. ESP. for PRIME TIME GAMES w/ most viewers.
They're not going to just take the gauranteed ~4.5% juice and call it a day. They r in the business for u to lose. line is shaded.
-------
if u blindly play vs the public/ on the dog, in such instances (Thurs, Sun night, Mon); u'll win long term.
If books lost on all prime time games volume $, they would go broke.
--------
regarding basketball/ baseball.
All spreads, usually ~80%+ of the time dont really matter. Everything is already factored into the line.
How many times have u actually seen a game land, right on the no. / even close to it ?
If a team is +2 to +5 even, just play the Ml. If u like a fav. look into just biting the spread / 1q/ 1h lower lines. ATS
If ur bet lands close to covering, u didnt actually "handicap" it, u played the roulette wheel. & got lucky/unlucky.
Try to include and pick dogs more - books hate it .
Pay attention to 1Hs and 1Qs as teams with emotions / off a loss / homecourt vs away records. matters a lot more to certain teams.
----------
If u like a team and its -175, just play the RL or -1 maybe. even if its the road/home team for bases.
Yes, yes, its less advantageous, the home team gets a gauranteed 9th innning and a walk off win can happen. and whatnot.
but how much is the actual advantage ? 1/9 innings - negligible - thats like <~10% diff. (volume bettors)
ur not going to be looking for a ~5% edge play ( spot bettors )
---------
NFL/ NCAAF is a different beast altogether. Key no.s 3/7/10 matter. unlike bases where the avg. margin of victory is ~3 or more.
Turnovers/ injuries/ 4Q meltdowns are crucial & def. common sometimes and cant exactly be determined.
Its all about clutch time. QBs, RBs and them having the "umph" at the end.
---------
If u "handicapped" something for reasons 1-10 and the bet wins/loses - its not necessarily because u handicapped it correctly/incorrectly.
Keep ur angles simple like 1-3. reasons.
If a line moves from an opener of say -3 to -7 ( more than just a couple points) due to injury / w/e.
play the other side regardless its usually an overreaction.
----------
There are also intangibles to consider: Examples from last year:
-Tom Brady's divorce/marriage problems : his mind was not in it for the first several games. lost most of the early games.
-Raiders, Derrek Carr, actually cried at press and said he was going to do better next game when they were struggling - then immediately went on a run.
-If say theres a "special event" at home team for breast cancer / special uniforms/ for the kids. etc. This gives an advantage.
It has to do with "sight lines" similar to why home teams win more vs road teams even if its the same standardized court.
or why black jersey teams usually win over white jersey teams.
The crowd matters even more then.
something which lakerboy and others explained to me once.
----------
Think of it like poker. where ur not actually playing the cards / dancing with the lines.
There are 5 total PLAYERS :- (including urself) , Team A, Team B, crowd & Book --- and its Player vs Player.
ur not actually playing reasons VS/ for team A/ B. but vs/for all the above ^
ur playing the players (mindset) , not whether they feel like playing better football that day.
Ex: Does horse X feel like running faster today?
Did a key player find out about their SO's infidelity the prev. night?
Hope this helps, correct me if i'm wrong
-------
All public info. is mostly useless by nature.
% consensus % tickets dont mean chit / inaccurate.
need a premium service like donbest and whatnot, to even get past break even 54.5% @ -110 lines.
...if ur that kind of guy. and like to catch steam be4 "value" / +EV is gone ( volume bettors )
---------
If u knew the %tickets on each side and % $ on each side.
and u were behind the screen of the bookmaker, u would easily decipher the "most likely" result. (industry sharp)
where u dont even have to know a single player's name. (insider trading)
the big books, already know this. all they're trying to do is attract the most action on the "wrong side" as much as possible.
----------
only line movement that matters is at openers / closers time.
once, their info is abundantly available & early line stabilizes thru profiling sharp $. ESP. for PRIME TIME GAMES w/ most viewers.
They're not going to just take the gauranteed ~4.5% juice and call it a day. They r in the business for u to lose. line is shaded.
-------
if u blindly play vs the public/ on the dog, in such instances (Thurs, Sun night, Mon); u'll win long term.
If books lost on all prime time games volume $, they would go broke.
--------
regarding basketball/ baseball.
All spreads, usually ~80%+ of the time dont really matter. Everything is already factored into the line.
How many times have u actually seen a game land, right on the no. / even close to it ?
If a team is +2 to +5 even, just play the Ml. If u like a fav. look into just biting the spread / 1q/ 1h lower lines. ATS
If ur bet lands close to covering, u didnt actually "handicap" it, u played the roulette wheel. & got lucky/unlucky.
Try to include and pick dogs more - books hate it .
Pay attention to 1Hs and 1Qs as teams with emotions / off a loss / homecourt vs away records. matters a lot more to certain teams.
----------
If u like a team and its -175, just play the RL or -1 maybe. even if its the road/home team for bases.
Yes, yes, its less advantageous, the home team gets a gauranteed 9th innning and a walk off win can happen. and whatnot.
but how much is the actual advantage ? 1/9 innings - negligible - thats like <~10% diff. (volume bettors)
ur not going to be looking for a ~5% edge play ( spot bettors )
---------
NFL/ NCAAF is a different beast altogether. Key no.s 3/7/10 matter. unlike bases where the avg. margin of victory is ~3 or more.
Turnovers/ injuries/ 4Q meltdowns are crucial & def. common sometimes and cant exactly be determined.
Its all about clutch time. QBs, RBs and them having the "umph" at the end.
---------
If u "handicapped" something for reasons 1-10 and the bet wins/loses - its not necessarily because u handicapped it correctly/incorrectly.
Keep ur angles simple like 1-3. reasons.
If a line moves from an opener of say -3 to -7 ( more than just a couple points) due to injury / w/e.
play the other side regardless
its usually an overreaction.----------
There are also intangibles to consider: Examples from last year:
-Tom Brady's divorce/marriage problems : his mind was not in it for the first several games. lost most of the early games.
-Raiders, Derrek Carr, actually cried at press and said he was going to do better next game when they were struggling - then immediately went on a run.
-If say theres a "special event" at home team for breast cancer / special uniforms/ for the kids. etc. This gives an advantage.
It has to do with "sight lines" similar to why home teams win more vs road teams even if its the same standardized court.
or why black jersey teams usually win over white jersey teams.
The crowd matters even more then.
something which lakerboy and others explained to me once.
----------
Think of it like poker. where ur not actually playing the cards / dancing with the lines.
There are 5 total PLAYERS :- (including urself) , Team A, Team B, crowd & Book --- and its Player vs Player.
ur not actually playing reasons VS/ for team A/ B. but vs/for all the above ^
ur playing the players (mindset) , not whether they feel like playing better football that day.
Ex: Does horse X feel like running faster today?
Did a key player find out about their SO's infidelity the prev. night?
Hope this helps, correct me if i'm wrong
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