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How much is freeplay worth? Math discussion

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hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
Lets exclude rollover in the conversation. How much are freeplay worth? It is important to note freeplay doesn't work like cash because regardless of you win or loss, you lose the freeplay. So there is a lot of cost associated to winning as you won't get the free play back and you want to transfer this cost as part of the win equation.

At the min it should be worth 45% of the total assuming you get $110 free play and buy $55 to win 50 on each side. That would be $50/110 assuming you can't tie and lose it outright.

Lets assume the free play you can do a parlay with it, 2 team parlay with average odds of -110. $27.5 to win 72.60, with all 4 combo, you will be at $72.5
Your cash value of the freeplay is now 66%

We take it to 3 teams, of 8 combo. $13.75 that is $82.5 (75% of cash value)
4 teams/16 combo, $6.87 that is $84.5 (76.8% cash value)
5 teams/32 combo, $3.43 that is $85.75 (highest point 78% of cash value.)
6 teams/64, 1.71 that is 81.22 (You start losing value at 6 team due to vig)

With a 5 team round parlay with all possible combos spread out evenly that puts your cash value of a freeplay that is unrestricted at 78%. Of course freeplays are not structure evenly, some like BOL would limit you to straight wagers only and limited+value at 125. This 78% can increase if the standard odds is less than -110.

So using freeplay with a 5 team parlay is probably best value. Of course you shouldn't use it in a round robin style as it would be heavily frown upon and might get you restricted. But if you do many 5 team parlays you do have a good chance that 1 hit giving you, your expected value of 78%. In practice I believe 3 team parlay might be the easiest to do. You lose some value but not a lot 3%, and you don't have to do a crazy number of bets.

As a side note, never use your freeplay on heavy negative odds plays like -120, -150, -200. As theses work in the opposite way to how this math works.
 
Last edited:

donjuan

donjuan

Joined
Nov 10, 2021
Messages
10
I like to use them on MLB or NHL moneyline underdogs as I think they have better chance to hit than the 3-way options.
MLB and NHL underdogs typically aren't big enough to convert your free plays to cash at the same rate as you can for soccer dogs at higher odds. A +250 dog that is exactly fair value will only convert at 71.4% and you're rarely going to find fair value on those.
 

hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
MLB and NHL underdogs typically aren't big enough to convert your free plays to cash at the same rate as you can for soccer dogs at higher odds. A +250 dog that is exactly fair value will only convert at 71.4% and you're rarely going to find fair value on those.
Yeah, but the vig seems huge as you go up the ladder. Usually you wi find a +600 attached to a -800 odds. (Even if you using other to arb part of it, the gap is still huge). And not sure how to work it with 3 separate lines.
 

hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
The vig on -800/+600 is less than on -110/-110.
But here is he kicker, while the theoretical hold is less, the lost of fund is more.

Lets say you have did $100 to win +600, you get 600,
On the opposite side you bet 600 to win 75 or 600@-800 odds. 600/800

So your maximum cash value is only 75% of the original 800. With a chance of winning nothing if you -800 side wins outright.
 

Enikk

Enikk

Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
12,509
But what offshore books let you bet FP on heavy underdogs? Almost every site I use has significant restrictions on what FP can be used on.
betus = max +140
bol = max +125
youwager = max +150
etc...
BAS lets you do just about anything. Took one up to like 2400 I think posted here. So many restrictions BOL
 

Enikk

Enikk

Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
12,509
Kicker at BAS is fine print that you have to leave deposit plus bonus in 30 days even though you completed rollover. You can take out winnings though so not worth making a big deposit there because they are holding a big chunk.
 

hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
But what offshore books let you bet FP on heavy underdogs? Almost every site I use has significant restrictions on what FP can be used on.
betus = max +140
bol = max +125
youwager = max +150
etc...
Bol FreePlay sooooo restricted I have a hard time finding events that are +120 to 125

I used to do 1st quarter football total, if it is .5 points.

NHL money line or total.

can’t find anything on the basketball side that are +110
 

Ace7550

Ace7550

Joined
Oct 19, 2021
Messages
2,231
Bol FreePlay sooooo restricted I have a hard time finding events that are +120 to 125

I used to do 1st quarter football total, if it is .5 points.

NHL money line or total.

can’t find anything on the basketball side that are +110
It wasn't that long ago that you could bet FP on hockey and baseball money lines without restriction. I bet some consultant came in and explained to them that adding those FP restrictions would save them a lot of money...
 

hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
It wasn't that long ago that you could bet FP on hockey and baseball money lines without restriction. I bet some consultant came in and explained to them that adding those FP restrictions would save them a lot of money...
I think you can still do ML on NHL and MLB, but it still has to be under +125, but you can't do run or puck lines.

So they basically want you to only find things that are around -105 or -110 and if it can tie, all the better so it is graded as a loss
 
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