NO. NO. NO.
It is complete BS. Having tried to read the tea leaves for 4 years on this game, I've given up.
Coaches subbing pitchers frequently. Also, I'm confident the managers for every pitcher have given the all-star coaches a pitch count limit for every player to avoid "excessive wear".
Finally, few players really give a crap if they win the game. Zero effort input. Its all for show/entertainment how can you bet on something as random as that?