JJGold, what is the golden 3 game series sweep rule ?

[pete0]

 

[BobbyFK]

Something about any game starting after 7p

 

[jjgold]

I know guys that used to always take in a third game of a series not to get swept I don’t think that means much anymore

 

[Tanko]

I know guys that used to always take in a third game of a series not to get swept I don’t think that means much anymore

It was a pretty solid stat years ago.

I believe it focused on picking Favs not to be swept. You'd have to pick Favs that were < -155 to be +EV because I think it hit like 60%. I've not looked at it enough in the last couple years to see if the general rule still holds true.

I do use the "Not To Be Swept" system on 3 game series for Hm teams if they've been a Fav for every game. But those don't happen often.

 

[JDS]

These numbers are a bit dated, but this gives you an idea of how often sweeps happen or don’t happen.

 

[pete0]

These numbers are a bit dated, but this gives you an idea of how often sweeps happen or don’t happen.

View attachment 16124

interesting. if i understand this correctly.

so, for example.. looking at the last row @ the 9.9% = ~10%

does it mean that in a 4 game series.
Game 1 winner home team, has a ~90% chance of winning atleast 1 or more rest of series ??

 

[JDS]

interesting. if i understand this correctly.

so, for example.. looking at the last row @ the 9.9% = ~10%

does it mean that in a 4 game series.
Game 1 winner home team, has a ~90% chance of winning atleast 1 or more rest of series ??

Yes sir.

 

[pete0]

on a side note -

what about double headers??
Does the flip, flop trend still work after knowing Game 1 result ?

 

[pete0]

Yes sir.

so in such an instance,
a constant double up strategy, till win would work huh ?

 

[JDS]

on a side note -

what about double headers??
Does the flip, flop trend still work after knowing Game 1 result ?

I’m not familiar with the flip-flop trend on doubleheaders, maybe @jjgold can fill you in on that one lol.

 

[pete0]

kind of asking any1 and every1 really on that one, lol

There are 2 double headers today!

I’m not familiar with the flip-flop trend on doubleheaders, maybe @jjgold can fill you in on that one lol.

 

[jjgold]

Guys made livings years ago with the 3 and 4 games series rules

 

[pete0]

input on double headers... trend?

 

[pete0]

MLB Baseball Doubleheaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Major League Baseball (MLB) Doubleheaders and stats on ESPN.com.

www.espn.com

 

[Tanko]

MLB Baseball Doubleheaders - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Major League Baseball (MLB) Doubleheaders and stats on ESPN.com.

www.espn.com

Same team won both games in 8 out of 14 double headers this season.
Of those 8 games the visitors won both game in 4 of those.

 

[pete0]

Same team won both games in 8 out of 14 double headers this season.
Of those 8 games the visitors won both game in 4 of those.

So what does this imply ?
Whats a good rule of thumb to take advantage of this ?

take visitors Gm1 and/or Home team Gm2 ??

 

[jjgold]

We might have some tomorrow

 

[Tanko]

So what does this imply ?
Whats a good rule of thumb to take advantage of this ?

take visitors Gm1 and/or Home team Gm2 ??

Pete, I got no idea. I was just amazed at how even it was. About half the time teams win both.
And for those that win both, half the time its the home team. Seems like a toss up on which way you would go.


I do play the following system on double headers though....

1. Chase Sys: Bet Hm tm if they are not a dog in both games. Bet on them 1st gm and stop if you win. Double the bet on them 2nd gm if they lost 1st gm.
2. Take the gm1 winners in 2nd gm if they were originally favored in both games.

I forget the win % but I've made small amounts on these in the past.

 

[jjgold]

Who is fading Tampa Sunday?

 

[baz]

JJ is a fag, literally. He had to move to AZ cuz his associates found out he was gay like Vito in Sopranos