Monday July 8th-Sunday July 14th MLB

[piratealew]

21-12 Sunday, cashed the top 3 plays and 10-6 top plays for a good day. Hit 3-1 Umpire overs yesterday. Totals have been really hot, looks like a lot of overs today based on matchups, with a small slate, never know, but hope we are right again.

1078-961 YTD/ (542-485 Top plays) Umpire Overs=102-72 Umpire Under=8-6

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-134
⭐️Cleveland-138
⭐️Cards/Nats Over 8.5-130
⭐️Braves-0.5-120 (F5)
⭐️Reds-1-120
⭐️NY Mutts+106
⭐️Nats-104
⭐️Twins-1-139
Braves-1-149
Reds-0.5-115 (F5)
Guardians Team Total Over 4-125
Pirates/Mets Over 8-130
Reds/Rockies Over 9-120
Twinks/White Sux Over 9-120
Cleveland/Detroit Over 8-115
Braves/Dbacks UNDER 8.5-120

Still looking at Texas/LAA Over, the matchup calls for a small over play, waiting on Umpire info for this one before I decide. GL

 

[fredo0130]

Best of luck today.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Mets/Pirates Over 8-120 with Marvin Hudson who's games are 9-5 Over this year on 9 run average (1 above today's total). Most year's he's around 9 runs or more per game. His avg strike call is around 63% each year and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio most of his tenure. His run impact avg is around 1.5 per game with his last game featuring Pirates his score was over 2 runs that game. The over is 5-2 last 7 games, and before sunday, the mets scored 5 or more runs in 8 of 12 games. Added another bit with the Hudson news.

 

[grngbln1771]

21-12 Sunday, cashed the top 3 plays and 10-6 top plays for a good day. Hit 3-1 Umpire overs yesterday. Totals have been really hot, looks like a lot of overs today based on matchups, with a small slate, never know, but hope we are right again.

1078-961 YTD/ (542-485 Top plays) Umpire Overs=102-72 Umpire Under=8-6

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-134
⭐️Cleveland-138
⭐️Cards/Nats Over 8.5-130
⭐️Braves-0.5-120 (F5)
⭐️Reds-1-120
⭐️NY Mutts+106
⭐️Nats-104
⭐️Twins-1-139
Braves-1-149
Reds-0.5-115 (F5)
Guardians Team Total Over 4-125
Pirates/Mets Over 8-130
Reds/Rockies Over 9-120
Twinks/White Sux Over 9-120
Cleveland/Detroit Over 8-115
Braves/Dbacks UNDER 8.5-120

Still looking at Texas/LAA Over, the matchup calls for a small over play, waiting on Umpire info for this one before I decide. GL

GL today.

In your travels, have you ever talked to any MLB players? I would love to know when the "grind" starts settling in with them and fatigue starts affecting their play and when they get their "2nd wind". I've only talked about this at length with a couple low-level minor leaguers and didn't get great info. Getting a feel for this would help me adjust plays, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

 

[piratealew]

GL today.

In your travels, have you ever talked to any MLB players? I would love to know when the "grind" starts settling in with them and fatigue starts affecting their play and when they get their "2nd wind". I've only talked about this at length with a couple low-level minor leaguers and didn't get great info. Getting a feel for this would help me adjust plays, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

I've known a few and quite a few in the minors, and a few managers. My babe ruth and HS teammate from chapel Hill Brian Roberts played over 10 MLB seasons with orioles and yankees (2b), he did say the 162 game season is a grind and most guys start wearing down just before All star break and the guys who get a wind are usually on teams that are competing for a playoff birth so you see guys step up in middle-late august while bad teams usually start to fade. Sometimes a trade or improvement in the roster gives guys a 2nd wind knowing they are in contention and the team is serious about winning while it has the opposite effect on teams players who are selling.
The current 1st base coach for dodgers (Clayton McCullough) is a childhood and college friend/teammate, speak with him every now and then and he said for the guys last year some of them hit a wall mid season but knowing they had a title to go after they picked it back up late, I imagine it will be much the same late season as Ohtani and the big guns turn it on. I think you'll notice a big difference in teams mid to late august. The guys on non playoff contender teams that have contract deals or bonuses will be trying extra hard while the other guys probably wont day every game.

 

[piratealew]

GL today.

In your travels, have you ever talked to any MLB players? I would love to know when the "grind" starts settling in with them and fatigue starts affecting their play and when they get their "2nd wind". I've only talked about this at length with a couple low-level minor leaguers and didn't get great info. Getting a feel for this would help me adjust plays, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

adding on a bit to your question because it ducktails to 2 possible rule changes that are being discussed and it impacts load and tear on players, primarily pitchers. There's been a lot of angst from some who want the ghost runner in extra's added in the 11th or later, many propose the 12th. I tend to agree. Clay told me a while back when I asked him about his feelings is he hates it being the 10th as well, he wants the teams to decide as do most of the players but said if it was had to be in place, it shouldnt be before the 11th. He said the pushback is the many of the league GM and owners are already dealing with dead arms and so many pitchers going on IL (they think due to the time clock and more stress), so the chances it changes with the ghost runner is less than 50/50.
Along with that, many want them to add 5-10 secs to the pitch timer, games are already at an all time fastest pace and now we have more pitchers injured (correlation does not equal causation), but it makes you wonder if it could be a contributing factor. I've heard they are proposing a change to 20 and 30 (20 with bases empty and 30 with a runner on). This actually wouldnt add much more time to the game and they could see if this change impacts pitchers injuries and wear and tear. 2 things to think about that may be changing.

 

[grngbln1771]

adding on a bit to your question because it ducktails to 2 possible rule changes that are being discussed and it impacts load and tear on players, primarily pitchers. There's been a lot of angst from some who want the ghost runner in extra's added in the 11th or later, many propose the 12th. I tend to agree. Clay told me a while back when I asked him about his feelings is he hates it being the 10th as well, he wants the teams to decide as do most of the players but said if it was had to be in place, it shouldnt be before the 11th. He said the pushback is the many of the league GM and owners are already dealing with dead arms and so many pitchers going on IL (they think due to the time clock and more stress), so the chances it changes with the ghost runner is less than 50/50.
Along with that, many want them to add 5-10 secs to the pitch timer, games are already at an all time fastest pace and now we have more pitchers injured (correlation does not equal causation), but it makes you wonder if it could be a contributing factor. I've heard they are proposing a change to 20 and 30 (20 with bases empty and 30 with a runner on). This actually wouldnt add much more time to the game and they could see if this change impacts pitchers injuries and wear and tear. 2 things to think about that may be changing.

Awesome info! Many thanks

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Mets/Pirates Over 8-120 with Marvin Hudson who's games are 9-5 Over this year on 9 run average (1 above today's total). Most year's he's around 9 runs or more per game. His avg strike call is around 63% each year and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio most of his tenure. His run impact avg is around 1.5 per game with his last game featuring Pirates his score was over 2 runs that game. The over is 5-2 last 7 games, and before sunday, the mets scored 5 or more runs in 8 of 12 games. Added another bit with the Hudson news.

The over was easy at least, glad i put more on it. The Mets manager sealed their fate in the 6th. tied 2-2 he takes out Scott (to be expected) but puts in a rookie making his MLB debut and on the road. 1st hitter=walk, 2nd hitter=hit. Next guy hit and a run. No outs recorded. this kid is going to have an infinity MLB ERA (rarely see that), as he heads back to the minors. Doubt we see Orze back for a while.

Scott
5.2 1 2 2 1 3 1 4.15
Orze
0.0 2 3 3 1 0 0 -.--
Houser
0.1 2 2 2 0 0 1 5.69

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Rockies/Reds Over 9 with Will Little who is avg 11.8 runs per game, 5-1 Over on 62.9% strikes and a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio.Most years he's + on the over and between 9-10 runs.He typically calls less strikes and walks more guys in relation to K's. Rockies pitcher Feltner has a 6.94 ERA (5.79 overall) when facing other NL teams. He also gave up 8 in 4IP to the reds in 1 game. Reds will be aggressive as they just got swept by detroit, and they do hit 3.72 against the rockies this year. Abbott gave up 3 in both of his last 2 starts against Colorado. I see a 7-4 type game, reds win.

 

[piratealew]

Pirates/Mets total was supposed to be a top play after i added more with the umpire news.

Upgrading one more total and adding some more to it with the umpire news

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Cleveland/Detroit Over 8 with James Hoye who rates in the extreme hitter friendly umpire category due to his smaller K zone for hitters and most years end up up + on overs and around 9-10 a game each year. This year 9-6 Over on almost 10 runs a game, 2.5 SO/BB Ratio and 63% strikes. Each yr he's averaged 9-10 runs a game back over 10 years except one in 2020. I had this game as a small over play but upgraded it with the news, the matchup calls for it too as Det Rookie has a 6 ERA, and guards should have plenty of run chances. The over has cashed 4 out of the last 5 for Cleveland games.

 

[piratealew]

Just got confirmation Braves changed pitchers from Sale to Elder so the above braves plays are gone. Playing the game as a top 5 in place of the F5 top play and F5 but game as a top play and a couple others, and playing the Braves team total now.

Also the last over i mentioned above (Rangers over) is now added with the new umpire news.

⭐️Braves ML-115 (Full game)
Rangers/Angels Over 8-135 (Umpire over)
Rangers-0.5+101 (F5)
Braves Team Total Over 4.5-115
Braves-119 (F5)

***3rd Umpire Over is Rangers/Angels Over 8 with Dan Bellino who is 9-7 over this year but avg a very high 10.35 Runs per game on 63% strikes and a 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, with last year being similar at over 10 runs per game and 23-13 Over. In Daniel's 2nd career start he gave up 5 over 4 IP to the lowly A's, the rangers should be able to get him for at least 4-5 runs and the bullpen as Angels are 3rd worst in MLB at 4.7 ERA, while the rangers are 7th worst with a 4.43 ERA, so i expect the angels to be able to score a few late. The over is 3-1 last 4 starts for Gray and 6 of their last 8 road games have gone over.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Mets/Pirates Over 8-120 with Marvin Hudson who's games are 9-5 Over this year on 9 run average (1 above today's total). Most year's he's around 9 runs or more per game. His avg strike call is around 63% each year and a low 2.5 SO/BB Ratio most of his tenure. His run impact avg is around 1.5 per game with his last game featuring Pirates his score was over 2 runs that game. The over is 5-2 last 7 games, and before sunday, the mets scored 5 or more runs in 8 of 12 games. Added another bit with the Hudson news.

I see some trolls who came here yesterday and are yapping across the street that i said i added more to the total AFTER. HA! Can they not read the original post last sentence at 11:43 AM, Even got a PM about it. Says it right there.

 

[piratealew]

I think Twins light up Flexen from the beginning so playing the F5 total also. Buxton has 2 homers off Flexen and 7 Hits in just 9 AB! 777 AVG on him, while Correa has 3 hits in 12 AB, Castro and Miranda both have 2 hits apiece off this pitcher. Twins have mashed all year on Righties, as they are 5th in MLB in homers off righties with 69. Umpire is John Libka who has been a hitter friendly ump for many years but this year his games have been very low scoring at 7.8 runs but still a 63% strike call and under 3 SO/BB Ratio. Maybe he had some bad luck with low scoring games but I'm not adding anymore to the game over now, just F5.

Twins/White Sox Over 4.5-120 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is Rangers/Angels Over 8 with Dan Bellino who is 9-7 over this year but avg a very high 10.35 Runs per game on 63% strikes and a 2.6 SO/BB Ratio, with last year being similar at over 10 runs per game and 23-13 Over. In Daniel's 2nd career start he gave up 5 over 4 IP to the lowly A's, the rangers should be able to get him for at least 4-5 runs and the bullpen as Angels are 3rd worst in MLB at 4.7 ERA, while the rangers are 7th worst with a 4.43 ERA, so i expect the angels to be able to score a few late. The over is 3-1 last 4 starts for Gray and 6 of their last 8 road games have gone over.

^The above is a top play.

 

[piratealew]

forgot the Texas F5 play.

Texas-0.5+104

 

[piratealew]

Day games didnt start as good, night games were awesome, thank you Rangers, Twins and Braves!

 

[piratealew]

11-9 yesterday, hit the big one on rangers, and Braves and Twins had nice comebacks to get some late wins. Funny to see clown trolls across the street still yapping and lying as usual. Yes, I do know the Dodgers 1st base coach, Clayton McCullough, Grew up with him in Chapel Hill NC and went to ECU with him. These clowns have nothing better to do than completely trash that other site with trolling. That's why they lose so much and spend time trolling and lying about winners.

1090-969 YTD/ (548-489 Top plays) Umpire Overs=104-74 Umpire Under=8-6

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cleveland-135
⭐️Texas-1-128
⭐️Phillies-132
⭐️Tampa/NYY Over 7.5-115
⭐️Arizona+105
⭐️Seattle-126
⭐️Toronto/SF Over 7.5-112
⭐️Baltimore-143
⭐️Houston-1.5+100
⭐️Reds-1-112
⭐️Toronto Blow Jays+115
⭐️Twins-1-120
⭐️Brewers-1-108
Tampa Team Total Over 3.5-110
Cleveland-118 (F5/First 5 innings)
Texas-0.5-115 (F5)
Yanks-123
Houston-0.5-125 (F5)
Nats+122
Royals+105
Oakland+1.5-120 (RL)
Twins-140 (F5)
Milwaukee-139 (F5)
Cleveland/Detroit Over 8.5-115
Seattle/San Dog Over 7.5-115
Chicago/Baltimore Over 8.5-130
LA/Philly Over 8.5-125
Oakland/Boston over 9.5-115
Oakland+165

No umpire info yet, but watching totals of Arizona possible Under, Twins possible under, and royals for a possible Over. These were leans, waiting on umpire for each game to see if it sways anything on the total.

 

[piratealew]

+should be 1089-970 above

 

[piratealew]

For those playing soccer today.

Euro
Spain-110 (To Qualify/Advance)/Spain+130 (Halftime OR Fulltime)

Copa
Argentina-110 (1st Half)/Argentina-1+100 (Full game)

 

[doyleellis11]

Good Luck today Pirate on ALL your picks a Thank You for Posting !