LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 6,077
Currently Brewers -109 at Heritage
We think we are getting a bargain price on Corbin Burnes and the Brewers Friday hosting the overachieving Andrew Abbott and the Reds.
Not the Real Deal
The majority of scouts were low on Abbott when he was recalled, not rating any of his pitches above average, yet he is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA through six starts. However, do not cast those Hall of Fame votes yet as indicators point to a hard crash to earth soon.
You see, there is luck and there is LUCK, and Abbott could not be any luckier than his 100% strand rate (not a typo) to go with a ,190 BABIP allowed, And while it may seem he has an easy matchup vs. a Milwaukee offense ranked 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ vs. lefties at 81, the Brewers have been better after recent lineup changes, ranking 11th vs. southpaws since June 1st at 99.
Others Would Be Happy
Burnes is certainly having a down year compared to his his Cy Young caliber seasons, but many pitchers in the league would be happy to combine 8.53 K/9 with a 19.4% soft-contact rate. In fact, despite much worse results, that soft-contact rate is up from 18,2% last year, when Burnes had a 2.85 FIP,
The good news for Burnes is he had seven strikeouts in seven innings last out and had more strikeouts than innings pitched three of his previous five starts, so he may be slowly rounding back to form.
We like Corbin’s future upside potential and we will back the Brewers at a cheap piece vs, an overachieving rookie.
We think we are getting a bargain price on Corbin Burnes and the Brewers Friday hosting the overachieving Andrew Abbott and the Reds.
Not the Real Deal
The majority of scouts were low on Abbott when he was recalled, not rating any of his pitches above average, yet he is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA through six starts. However, do not cast those Hall of Fame votes yet as indicators point to a hard crash to earth soon.
You see, there is luck and there is LUCK, and Abbott could not be any luckier than his 100% strand rate (not a typo) to go with a ,190 BABIP allowed, And while it may seem he has an easy matchup vs. a Milwaukee offense ranked 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ vs. lefties at 81, the Brewers have been better after recent lineup changes, ranking 11th vs. southpaws since June 1st at 99.
Others Would Be Happy
Burnes is certainly having a down year compared to his his Cy Young caliber seasons, but many pitchers in the league would be happy to combine 8.53 K/9 with a 19.4% soft-contact rate. In fact, despite much worse results, that soft-contact rate is up from 18,2% last year, when Burnes had a 2.85 FIP,
The good news for Burnes is he had seven strikeouts in seven innings last out and had more strikeouts than innings pitched three of his previous five starts, so he may be slowly rounding back to form.
We like Corbin’s future upside potential and we will back the Brewers at a cheap piece vs, an overachieving rookie.
