Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
KC Mahomes O
(-115)DraftKings 101 KAN vs 102 PHI
double-dime bet
Analysis: 2* Play
KC Mahomes Pass Yards OVER 288 -115
Draft Kings has 287.5, FanDuel 288.5, many other books have this same number(s).
This play is good up to 290.5
I was hoping to wait until 3pm PST today to give out any plays, but this was going to get hit before that...... so I had to give it out
*****
I will outline EVERY bet I personally make; many of these will not be available, but look for them, and Note this is what I have bet for myself:
A team miss 2 fgs?
-500
NO
Both teams 35 fg
-130
NO
More Points 2h
-145
2h
More Tds than fg
-330
Tds
KC team 2h OV 12
-125
KC OV 12
Sanders 1st td v Pacheco
-115
Sanders
Sanders 1st td vs. Mckinon
-160
Sanders
Mahomes OV 37.5 att
105
Mahomes
Mah OV 287.5
-110
Mahomes
Opening KO t back
155
NO tb
A start QB neg yds
-750
NO
SC 1st 3 min
-550
NO
2h-.5 -110 vs. 1h
-112
2h
short TD un 1.5
-155
UN 1.5
1h UN 25-119
-119
UN 25
Philly spread
1.5
KC spread
2.5
LEAN KC at current number...
Reminder:
DO NOT TEASE the Super Bowl
LOOK to AVOID all "needle in haystack" bets like exact final score, exact number of points scored, who will score 1st Td, etc.
Focus on bets with just 2 outcomes, bet OV/UN, Yes/No
In general, typically if there is value it is betting on the bigger vig side of a prop bet.
By example, if we get NO OT -800 that's good. YES Otime 6-1 is TERRIBLE
Adding..
2* T. Kelce (KC) Over 6.5 Recs -40. (I like ALL the Kelce props, including Yes Kelce TD, and Kelce over yardage, but this is my favorite of all of them........).
2* D. Goedert (PHI) Over 4.5 Recs -25.
2* M. Sanders (PHI) o12.5 Rush Att -35. (LOVE all the Sanders rush props over. STRONG LEAN: Sanders UNDER 1.5 CATCHES -180.).
2* NO SCORE in 1st 6 minutes -40 (NO Score 5.5 minutes -160 is even better........ @ SP)