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Service Plays - Thursday 8/26/21

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Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Tokyo Brandon

(304617) Hanwha Eagles at (304618) Kiwoom Heroes
Game: (304617) Hanwha Eagles at (304618) Kiwoom Heroes
Date/Time: Aug 26 2021 5:30 AM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Hanwha Eagles Total Over 1.5 (+100)
I generally do not like betting my money on garbage (and Hanwha is garbage) but they average 2.1 runs every 1st 5 and Kim Dong Hyeok walks more than he Ks. His ERA is an illusion because he was a reliver. Hanwha should be able to get 2 in the 1st five make a 1% play on it.

Doosan Bears at NC Dinos
Game: Doosan Bears at NC Dinos
Date/Time: Aug 26 2021 2:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1st 5 innings Draw
Looking at the matchup between these two teams every possible category is a stalemate. SPs are about equal, allow only 2 runs per start vs the other, both lineups powerful and both in good form. It is certainly worth a 1% play to bet the draw after 5 innings. Take it for +535, I see it at +520 in other books. Anything over 500 is worth a 1% shot.

304611) Samsung Lions at (304612) LG Twins
Game: (304611) Samsung Lions at (304612) LG Twins
Date/Time: Aug 26 2021 5:30 AM EDT
Play Rating: C%
Play: 1H Samsung Lions -148
Buchannan has allowed 1 run in 6 innings each of his starts vs LG. He has a 113/33 K/BB rate and is pitching very well. LG SP Im has a 12/9 K/BB rate and Samsung has the better lineup. Better SP and better lineup means 1st 5 money line. If Samsung can get 1 in the 1st 5 it should at least tie.

304173) Yokohama Baystars at (304174) Hanshin Tigers
Game: (304173) Yokohama Baystars at (304174) Hanshin Tigers
Date/Time: Aug 26 2021 5:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: D%
Play: Yokohama Baystars Total Over 2.5 (+100)
Pinnacle by far has the best lines for Japanese baseball and they are offering the Yokohama team total at +100 2.5. My numbers have this at 3.7 so a lot of value. I like Joe Gunkel but he has a 3.50 ERA vs the BayStars and never goes past 5 innings. The Hanshin bullpen is garbage I think 2.5 is way too low. Take the Over 2.5.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Total 4 U

Totals 4 You MLB Baseball Report for Thursday, August 26th

2021 NL Central Daytime Dominator Total of the Year!!!!!
Cincinnati/Milwaukee over 8 1/2


MLB Baseball Bonus Winners

Washington/Miami over 7 1/2
Chicago White Sox/Toronto under 8 1/2
Texas/Cleveland over 9 1/2
Kansas City/Seattle over 8 1/2
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Kyle Akins

CHI. WHITE SOX @ TORONTO | 08/26 | 3:07 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX +101
ANALYSIS: In a matchup of solid starters, Carlos Rodon has set himself apart. Rodon has struck out 13.1 batters per nine innings this season, while Toronto’s Hyun Jin Ryu has struck out just 7.1 batters per nine innings. Rodon worked five shutout innings in his last start against the Cubs and they were electric as he struck out 11 with just two hits allowed. The White Sox are 6-0 since July 24, 2018, when Rodon starts as a road underdog after he had more strikeouts than hits allowed, but allowed at least two hits in his last start.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
MLB Sharp Action

7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (82-44) at New York Mets (61-65)

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 8-0 as + 115 road dogs and winning again yesterday 3-2 as + 100 road dogs. The Giants have now won four straight while the free-falling Mets fall to just 2-10 over their last 12 games. In tonight's series finale, San Francisco hands the ball to lefty Alex Wood (10-4, 4.11 ERA) and New York counters with righty Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.82 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -118 road favorite and the Mets a + 113 home dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're fading the reeling Mets and backing the best team in baseball on a short chalk price, driving the Giants up from -118 to -125. The Giants are 52-25 as a favorite this season. The Mets are 20-33 as a dog. San Francisco is also 59-28 against righties while New York is just 14-25 against lefties. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for ideal hitting weather: high 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The home plate umpire Adrian Johnson has also historically favored overs (55%).

9:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (74-52) at Oakland Athletics (70-57)

This non-division showdown is pivotal for both teams and their playoff aspirations. The Yankees currently occupy the first Wild Card spot in the AL while the Athletics are only 1.5-games back of the Red Sox for the second spot. In tonight's series opener, the Yankees send out righty Jameson Taillon (8-4, 3.94 ERA) and the Athletics tap fellow righty James Kaprielian (7-4, 3.25 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and Oakland a + 115 home dog. The public is all over the red-hot Yankees, who are riding an 11-game win streak. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen New York fall from -125 to -110. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Athletics as a short home dog (+ 115 to + 105). Non-division home teams receiving steam 10-cents or more are 226-147 (60.6%) this season. Oakland also has value as a contrarian home dog with a high total. Sharps are also eyeing the over in this one. The total opened at 8.5 and respected money has pushed it up to 9. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center.

10:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (56-70) at Seattle Mariners (69-58)

These non-division foes are at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. The Royals are out of contention and own the fourth-worst record in the American League. Meanwhile, the Mariners are just 2.5-games back of the second Wild Card spot. In tonight's series opener, Kansas City hands the ball to righty Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA) and Seattle starts lefty Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -146 home favorite and the Royals a + 133 road dog. Sharps seem to think this line is a bit low and have gotten down hard on Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -146 to -168. Non-division home favorites are 411-259 (61.3%) this season. If they're in the "sweet spot" range of -150 to -175, they improve to 88-50 (63.8%). This is also a "schedule spot" advantage for Seattle, who was off yesterday while the Royals played the Astros. Rested favorites coming off a day off against teams on a back-to-back are 58-36 (61.7%). The Royals are 24-39 on the road. The Mariners are 37-25 at home. Wiseguys are also leaning under here. The total isd 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8.
 

Jackofhearts

Jackofhearts

Joined
May 12, 2021
Messages
1,218
Matt Severance

L.A. ANGELS @ BALTIMORE | 08/26 | 1:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: This total has jumped to 10.5 at many books, so let's grab it while we can at 10. Not a huge total guy, but the conditions are ripe for another shootout weather-wise and both starting pitchers -- Jamie Barria (9.00 road ERA) and Keegan Akin (7.92 overall ERA) -- are terrible. Which now means this will end 2-1.
 
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