BMR Social
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2022
- Messages
- 237
By: Doug Upstone
May has arrived and though it was snowing in the upper Midwest this morning, better weather is coming. That doesn’t matter to Kings, Bruins, or Avalanche fans who are all grieving today with their teams out of the playoffs in unexpected fashion. The Miami Marlins are doing something very odd to start the MLB season and the Chicago White also gave us an oddity on Sunday. If you are not following our public betting trends, you must not like money, as they are killing it across the board.
About Last Weekend…
NBA
Sacramento was flipped from +1 to -1.5 point favorite before tip-off for Game 7 against Golden State. The Kings had a two-point lead at halftime and completely fell apart, unable to stop Steph Curry who finished with 50 points and not being able to buy a basket with missed shots. Besides careless turnovers, Sacramento shot 37.3% for the game and was abhorrent 16-27 from the free throw line, in losing four of the final five games in the series.The New York Knicks got the start they wanted against Miami in building a double-digit lead. However, in the middle of the second quarter, the Heat started to find their offense while the Knicks’ offense totaled 46 second-half points and they lost by 7 as four-point favorites. New York was 7-32 from behind the arc which killed them.
NHL
For Boston, it was the worst possible outcome after putting together the best-ever regular season in NHL history. Some call it a curse to win the President’s Trophy (most points on the season), being too much pressure to win it all.But here is what we saw, Boston’s passing in the last three games was dreadful. Either too far in front or behind players and they continually had unforced errors that gave the puck to Florida. A Bruins defense that had been airtight all season, was often out of position and the goaltender was subpar, especially when they needed it the most. The pain has to be excruciating.
Though Colorado is not the same team as it was at this time, losing three times on home ice to Seattle, including the crucial Game 7 had to be unthinkable for Avalanche fans.
Tonight will conclude Round 1 and NHL road teams are impossible to comprehend 31-18 (63.3%) in the playoffs entering tonight.
MLB
The Miami Marlins just swept the Cubs at home to lift their record to 16-13. From here it gets weird because they have a -35 run differential, which is the 2nd worst in the NL, only ahead of Colorado. How could that be, here is the answer. The Marlins took all three games against Chicago by one run and on the season are 10-0 in one-run outcomes.The Chicago White Sox had lost 10 straight, their unbelievably bad bullpen had just given up seven runs over two innings and they trailed the best team in baseball, Tampa Bay, 9-5. Then baseball happened in some unexplainable way. The White Sox scored seven runs in the bottom of the 9th, capped off by an Andrew Vaughn three-run walk-off homer to win. If you had the Rays at -1.5 on the RL at -120, all we can say is sorry.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Boston is 7-0 Over after five straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.
- Denver is 1-10 ATS in home games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.
- New York is 30-11 Under in home games revenging a same-season loss.
- Golden State is 15-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season.
NHL
- N.Y. Rangers are 10-3 Over in the first round of the playoffs.
- Florida is 1-8 in the 1st game of a playoff series.
- Dallas is 1-7 in home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored five or more goals.
MLB
- Cleveland is 10-2 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%).
- Houston is 32-8 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse.
- N.Y. Yankees are 23-7 Under when playing on Monday since 2021. (Matters because it starts a series)
- J. Berrios of the Blue Jays is 14-4 Over in road games the last two seasons.
- Chic. White Sox are 18-4 Over in home games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.
- St. Louis is 4-11 (-10.9 Units) playing against a team with a winning record this season.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
Starting today, we move full speed ahead to the 2nd Round of the NBA Playoffs and start back up. Check our full daily NBA picks.MLB
Even if Monday has a light slate, it doesn’t matter, we have attacked it and have free MLB picks and props. We are back to normal Monday and you can count on us to have all the info you need and expect.NHL
We conclude a wild First Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Rangers at Devils for Game 7 and we have a complete breakdown and NHL picks. On Tuesday, it is on to the Conference semifinals with more chaos ahead.The Buzz
MLB – Today, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider Started Game 1 of Their Make Doubleheader
Strider might be the next great starting pitcher in baseball.NFL/Soccer – J.J. Watt Pulling a Brady and Unretiring Already?
There is more to this story!NHL – Riding the Rangers
The Rangers and Devils play Game 7 tonight and a look at various sportsbooks has 70% to 80% of the money backing the visiting Blueshirts. As shown above, the visitors are winning at a sick percentage, and if the contest would go to OT, a great live bet would be on the Rangers as the visitor is an impossible 11-3 this year in the postseason.NFL – If You Didn’t Know the NFL Was King, This Proves It
From - Front Office SportsNFL Draft Attendance:
- 2015, Chicago: 200,000
- 2016, Chicago: 225,000
- 2017, Philadelphia: 250,000
- 2018, Dallas: 200,000
- 2019, Nashville: 600,000
- 2020: Virtual
- 2021, Cleveland: 160,000
- 2022, Las Vegas: 300,000
- 2023, Kansas City: 312,000
NBA – Conference Semi-Finals Series Pricing (from BetOnline)
- (2) Celtics (-500) vs. (3) 76ers (+375)
- (6) Warriors (-145) vs. (7) Lakers (+125)
NHL – Conference Semi-Finals Series Pricing (from BetOnline)
- Maple Leafs (-170) vs. Panthers (+150)
- Stars (-190) over Kraken (+125)
- Oilers (-156) over Golden Knights (+134)
Top Betting System
NBA – Suns (-110) vs. Nuggets -4
Play against playoff road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second game of a playoff series. This system is 29-5 ATS and we have shown it here before. It is also 5-0 this season, and overall, the visitor is losing by 14.2 PPG.Out the Door
Betting – Not that Anyone Would Have Done This Sunday But…
NFL – Just Horrible News
Tampa Bay’s Shaquil Barrett’s 2-year-old daughter, Arrayah, passed away due to drowning over the weekend. No more words are needed. Rest in Peace.NBA – Here is Something You Have Never Seen
https://twitter.com/ClutchPointsApp/status/1652798986561142784?s=20NBA/NHL – Both Best Teams Lost but It Has Happened Before
The Bruins and Bucks had the best record in their respective sports and both lost in Round 1. This is the 2nd time that the teams with the best NHL and NBA regular season records have each lost in Round 1 as the Canucks and Bulls did so in 2012.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 3 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (51-32-1 Record 31-16 Run)
- 76ers/Celtics Over
- Lakers/Warriors Over
- Heat/Knicks Under
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (37-22 Record)
- Yankees
- Reds/Padres Over
- Blue Jays
- Phillies/Dodgers Over
- Blue Jays/Red Sox Over
NHL Top 2 Bet by Percentage (Highest First) (50-36 Record and 26-15 Run)
- Stars
- Maple Leafs
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
