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By: Doug Upstone
It certainly was a great weekend of MLB action and we have several quick stories for you to peruse including the red-hot Atlanta Braves. With every team having completed half their season in baseball, we look at one method to see who is over or underachieving. This plus other news including a bet on Joey Chestnut for Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Have a great 4th of July!
About Last Weekend…
MLB
The Atlanta Braves have surpassed Tampa Bay for the best record in the majors after demolishing Miami in a sweep (29-7) and taking their win streak to 8. Texas might score more runs than the Braves (5.9 vs. 5.7) but Atlanta can separate itself quickly in games by averaging almost two homers a game and leading baseball in exit velocity on batted balls. Wait and see if all their starting pitchers return and are completely healthy.Kansas City won their home series over the L.A. Dodgers, which was surprising enough. But get this, the Royals are 9-7 against the NL West and 16-52 against everyone else.
Cincinnati remained tied with Milwaukee atop the NL Central in beating San Diego 4-3 Sunday as -125 home favorites. Rookie Reds starter Andrew Abbott continues to shine at 4-0 with a skinny 1.21 ERA. Here is a trait you don’t see in young pitchers.
Toronto was nicely positioned to make a run before the All-Star break with a nine-game homestand and facing the White Sox and Tigers on the road. But after being swept by Boston, they ended up 4-5 on the homestand and squandered another opportunity.
Golf
A unique Sunday in golf. Rickie Fowler made a birdie on 18 to force a three-way tie at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and made a birdie on the first playoff hole to end his drought of not winning in 53 months.Also, 66-year-old Bernhard Langer won the men’s Senior Open and became the winningest all-time player with 46 victories at this level.
Trendy Talk
MLB
- Baltimore is 14-1 as a road favorite of -110 or higher the last two seasons.
- Washington is 17-10 (+20.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
- Atlanta is 29-9 after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base.
- Houston is 11-0 Over playing on Monday this season.
- L.A. Dodgers are 21-7 Over after three or more consecutive road games.
- N.Y. Yankees are 14-2 Under in home games after scoring two runs or less this season.
- Toronto is 1-11 (-15 Units) after six or more consecutive home games this season. (Tuesday)
- Philadelphia is 17-3 Under after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. (Tuesday)
CFL
- British Columbia is 8-0 ATS in road games off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.
What to Watch for and Win (Hopefully)
MLB
The holiday weekend continues and we have 10 games on Monday and a full slate for the 4th of July. Review all our free MLB picks for the next two days.Football
As we all know, football never really stops and we have quality futures articles for you in the NFL and college football ready for you to digest for the upcoming season. We will add new articles for you to enjoy leading up to the season each week.The Buzz
NBA - Free Agent Market Uneventful
It is starting to seem that NBA teams are no longer interested in signing a splashy free agent if the rest of the roster is not good enough to support that player and the team cannot make a significant move upward.Many free agents are signing with their existing teams and for now, the big deal signing has cooled. Front offices are instead seeking players they can sign for a year or two giving them the flexibility to be a buyer or seller near the trade deadline to give them more options.
Betting – Betting on Joey Chestnut for Hot Dogs
It seems like a foregone conclusion Joey Chestnut will win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. However, a bettor at a U.S. sportsbook wagered $2,000 at -4000 odds. If correct he picks $50. Worth it?Top Betting System
MLB – Braves (-140 ML) vs. Guardians
Play on any team after sweeping a three-game series against a division rival, and they play an inter-league game next. Teams like Atlanta are 45-11 in this exact situation.Out the Door
MLB – Mid-Season Research
Over the weekend, every team completed the first half of their schedule, 81 games. Renowned statistician, Bill James designed the concept that strives to determine the number of games that a team -should - have won, based on its total number of runs scored versus its number of runs allowed, to better forecast that team's future outlook.Here are the teams that at are overachieving and underachieving at the midpoint of the season.
Overachievers
- Orioles 48-33 – Should be 41-40
- Braves 54-27 – Should be 47-34
- Marlins 47-34 - Should be 40-41
- D-Backs 48-33 – Should be 42-39
Underachievers
- Royals 23-58 – Should be 32-49
- Cardinals 34-47 – Should be 38-43
- Padres 37-44 – Should be 41-40
- Nationals 33-48 – Should be 37-44
- Reds/Brewers 43-38 – Should be 39-42
It is likely some of these teams will regress to the mean, while others might improve and be a completely different squad in the second half of the season. Nonetheless, an interesting exercise.
USFL – Birmingham Repeats as Champs
Pittsburgh had their chances early against Birmingham but settled for field goals while the Stallions were scoring touchdowns. Birmingham won 28-12 to win the title for a second straight year and covered the -7.5.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
MLB - Top 4 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (107-74 record, 10-3 of run)
- Braves
- Reds
- Angels/Padres Over
- Cardinals/Marlins Over
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Friday, July 14. (On vacation)
