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By: Doug Upstone
What an eventful and fun weekend of college basketball and we recap what we saw and have thoughts about tonight’s battle. It was a historic day in the NBA Sunday and for all the wrong reasons if you bet the big favorites.
The news was very good coming from the MLB as most fans and players liked the new pace and outcomes of the games. This and free picks to start the week.
About Last Weekend…
Men’s NCAAB
San Diego State seemed doomed to lose Saturday. Florida Atlantic’s ball movement and execution were carving up their supposedly impregnable defense. The Aztecs even in the midst of their second-half comeback saw shots going in and out or rolling around the rim before falling out.Florida Atlantic made one fatal move, they started to slow their offense down, which meant less movement and settled for shots instead of being aggressive in the final five minutes. The Owls still thought they had it before Lamont Butler’s last shot was a winner.
There had been four other Final Four last-shot winners, but No. 5 was the first with the winning shot that came with the winning squad trailing. FAU on the money line was the most wagered option Saturday and was almost correct.
Connecticut completed their fifth straight demolition by whipping Miami by 13 points, and they have held five straight foes in this tournament to collectively below 35 percent shooting.
The title game opened with UConn at -6 and in less than an hour it was -7.5, where it stood this morning before crumbling to -7 this afternoon.
Women’s NCAAB
Starting Friday night, the women’s Final Four captured the imagination of the sports world like never before. There were three distinct parts that everyone heard about, but didn’t necessarily know, that made people tune in.Caitlin Clark, South Carolina at No. 1 and unbeaten team seeking a second straight championship and LSU coach Kim Mulkey.
Clark was everything we could have imagined as a basketball player. She stole the show and we still don’t know why the Gamecocks didn’t do a better job of not letting her get to the basket on drives that often started 20 to 25 feet from the basket.
If you watched the action Friday, despite how well Iowa played, it was clear LSU had better players that were quicker and faster and we were shocked to see them as underdogs going into the title game. Mulkey and the Tigers had too many weapons for Clark and the Hawkeyes and LSU was a deserving champion.
LSU’s Angel Reese got into hot water for acting and talking smack towards Clark, which was much about nothing. If this happened in the men’s title game, it would be written off as “tough-minded” competitors, which is exactly what LSU and Iowa were.
Overall, great basketball to watch, except for the referees in the championship wanting their importance noticed, which ended up having numerous hashtags on Twitter during the contest.
NBA
Though the NBA was largely unnoticed, Sunday caught NBA bettors’ attention. San Antonio was a 16-point road underdog at Sacramento. As is always the case in games like this in any sport, give a bad dog a reason to care and they might play. The Kings did and the Spurs won in OT 142-134.However, that was only the second-biggest upset of the day as Minnesota was handing out 19.5 points to an injury-battled Portland squad, and the Timberwolves lost 107-105 at home. That made for a historic day as you can see.
NHL
Boston won two overtime games over the weekend to become the 4th team ever to reach 60 wins in a season. If they win four of their last five contests, they would break the all-time record for points at 133, surpassing the 1976-77 Canadiens record of 132.One has to wonder if Boston goes for the record because when Tampa Bay reached 60 wins four years ago, they were swept in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Trendy Talk
NCAAB
- San Diego St. is 12-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots after 15+ games this season.
- Connecticut is 9-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season.
- San Diego St. is 6-0 Under when playing their second away game in three days.
- Connecticut is 6-0 Under in away games after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games.
MLB
- Baltimore is 21-11 (+18.4 Units) after two or more consecutive losses.
- San Francisco is 5-18 after scoring one run or less.
- Colorado is 18-3 Under after a game with a combined score of four runs or less.
- Houston is 14-3 Under after two straight games with no home runs.
- Detroit is 32-10 Under as an underdog of +200 or more the last two seasons. (Tuesday)
NBA – All Tuesday
- Atlanta is 10-27 ATS after playing a home game.
- Golden State is 23-8 ATS in home games versus teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game.
- Minnesota is 12-2 Over in non-conference road contests.
- Oklahoma City is 8-0 Over versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3-point shots a game.
NHL
- Dallas is 9-0 in home games when playing their third game in four days.
- Minnesota is 11-2 Over after a loss by three goals or more.
- Edmonton is 20-2 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. (Tuesday)
- Toronto is 15-1 having lost two of their last three games this season. (Tuesday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NCAAB
We have a complete game breakdown for tonight’s national championship between San Diego State and Connecticut along with the top player props.
MLB
The first full week of baseball starts and we have daily top picks (that are free), parlays and top prop selections.
NHL
Let’s get a new week started with our best bets as the playoff hunts head toward an exciting conclusion.
NBA
This is the last week of the regular season in the NBA. There is no action Monday but there is a heavy slate Tuesday and we’ll cover the works with a load of free picks and props.The Buzz
MLB – Opening Salvo
Though there are those that don’t like baseball’s rule changes, the overwhelming evidence favors everything implemented. From ESPN’s Jeff Passan, here are the current numbers.Games
- 2023: 50
- 2022: 49
Time of game
- 2023: 2:38
- 2022: 3:09
Batting
- 2023: .245/.323/.392
- 2022: .230/.308/.374
Stolen Bases
- 2023: 70 of 84 (83.3%)
- 2022: 29 of 43 (67.4%)
Pitch clock violations
- 2023: 40 (0.8 per game)
In truth, there is nothing not to like. I’ll have a few comments below in - Out The Door.
MLB – Tampa Bay and Texas Come Out Firing
The Rangers and Rays both started 3-0 and they did so in a dominant fashion. It turned out even more dominant than we realized.NBA – Mavs Mishaps Continue
Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic combined for 63 points on Sunday, the 6th time they've scored at least 60 as a duo. The Mavericks are now 2-4 in those games. With Oklahoma City owning the tiebreaker, Dallas has to win its last three games and the Thunder has to lose their three for Dallas to reach the play-in round.Top Betting System
Title Game – San Diego State vs. Connecticut (-7)
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like San Diego State, after two straight close wins by three points or less, against an opponent after three straight wins by 10 points or more, are 7-30 ATS. Teams like the Aztecs have lost by 13.2 PPG in this situation.Out The Door
NCAAB – Connecticut on a Mission
Maybe San Diego State does the improbable and shocks the world, nevertheless, this sure feels like this is Connecticut’s championship to lose.There have been five teams that won their five tournament games by 13 or more points and four went on to become national champions. (2000 Michigan State, 2001 Duke, 2009 UNC and 2018 Villanova) Also, each of these aforementioned clubs won the title by 10 or more points.
MLB – Better Product
The lack of shift has immediately helped batting averages and the number of singles is way up. Batters are still striking out too much which still limits the number of balls in play, nonetheless, the pace and product are improved.Nobody needs to freak out about the stolen bases. So what if there are more, that adds more excitement and sets up the potential for more runs scored. Teams will be scheming to find ways to get runners off balance, like possibly calling two pitches in a row, where the pitcher gets the ball back from the catcher, toes the rubber and almost immediately throws before the runner has established his lead.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NCAAB Top 1 Bet by Percentage (highest first) (24-25-1 record)
- San Diego St./Connecticut OVER
NHL Top 2 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (25-22 record)
- Kraken
- Coyotes/Kraken OVER
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (4-4 record)
- Astros
- Orioles/Rangers OVER
- Rays
- Dodgers
- Pirates/Red Sox
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
