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By: Doug Upstone
The NBA Playoffs have improved over the last few years in the early part of the first-round series and this past weekend delivered. There is also a hot early trend in the NBA postseason we share. We have an MLB weekend wrap and get ready for heavy Stanley Cup action and have the latest key odds.
This plus top trends and free picks and a PGA golfer who makes watching paint dry fun.
About Last Weekend…
NBA
The NBA did its best impression of trying to keep up with the Stanley Cup playoffs for excitement to the playoffs.Saturday, we had an upset with New York playing smart basketball and taking down Cleveland by four as five-point road underdogs. The Knicks’ magic formula all season against the Cavs is dominating the glass and that continued.
The Warriors and Kings game was fabulous from an entertainment perspective with unreal shot-making. With how Sacramento likes to go in transition, Coach Steve Kerr would be wise to tell his players to complain less about what they believe are foul calls and get back on defense. Cost them eight points we counted.
The Lakers were impressive and Memphis’ lack of injured big guys might sway the series in the Lakers' favor. Also, if Ja Morant is not 100% for Game 2, the series is over. We’ll have more on that NBA Playoff basketball in - Out the Door.
It was hard to tell if Miami was just shooting great or Milwaukee’s defense was lackluster. It was probably a combination of both, but the Heat is confident they can score at will. If no Giannis for Game 2, Milwaukee is in a bit of trouble without tighter defense. Losing Tyler Herro will matter for Miami.
Lastly, the Clippers took it to Phoenix in the opener and Charles Barkley was right (which is not often), that Kawhi Leonard was playing as well or better than anyone the last month and he showed it in the Clips 115-110 upset.
MLB
The Dodgers lost two of three to the Cubs and they should have been swept at home, scoring twice in the bottom of the ninth to escape Saturday. Nobody is denying what date the calendar says, there is just a different look to this team, and not in a good way.The same goes for the Padres who lost three of four to Milwaukee and are below .500. The most visible aspect is the lack of emotion from San Diego players and Juan Soto hitting .172. Dude, come on!
Tampa Bay finally lost, twice in fact at Toronto, yet, they have a deep and very interesting team that might not give up the top spot in the AL East.
Miami is 8-8, but they have the second-worst run differential in the NL (-26). This is worth following to understand if the Marlins are better or not as good as their record.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.
- Golden State is 12-4 Over in road games off a road loss this season.
- Atlanta is 6-19 ATS in the 2nd game of a playoff series. (Tuesday)
- Cleveland is 19-9 Under off an upset loss as a favorite. (Tuesday)
- L.A. Clippers are 4-16 ATS in road games when leading in a playoff series. (Tuesday)
NHL
- Carolina is 34-7 in home games after a two-game unbeaten streak.
- Florida is 4-14 ATS in road games against teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal.
- Dallas is 14-7 Under off a home win this season.
- Edmonton is 12-3 Over in home games after allowing two goals or less in two straight games.
- N.Y. Rangers are 7-0 Over in the first round of the playoffs. (Tuesday)
- Tampa Bay is 4-11 ATS in road games revenging a one-goal loss. (Tuesday)
- Winnipeg is 0-11 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season the last two years. (Tuesday)
- Seattle is 19-10 Over after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. (Tuesday)
MLB
- Chicago Cubs are 20-7 after a one-run win.
- Chicago White Sox are 12-25 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.
- Colorado is 17-7 in home games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games.
- Houston is 42-20 Under vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.
- Tampa Bay is 11-1 on the RL as a favorite when the run line price is +135 to -190 this season.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
Two games tonight feature Game 2’s between Nets vs. 76ers and Warriors vs. Kings. On Tuesday we come right back with a trio of games and loads of free NBA picks.MLB
Hope you are enjoying our new format that gives you more games and free MLB picks to choose from. Look us up for Monday and Tuesday.NHL
The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tonight and we cover them like a blanket with sharp analysis with free NHL picks galore.Soccer
Check out UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals Leg 2 analysis and soccer picks for Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games.The Buzz
NFL – Breaking News on Jalen Hurts Signing New Contract
NHL – Various Betting Odds
Odds to Win Stanley Cup (BetOnline - visit our BetOnline Review)
- Boston Bruins (+265)
- Edmonton Oilers (+650)
- Colorado Avalanche (+700)
- Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+1200)
- New Jersey Devils (+1200)
- New York Rangers (+1200)
- Vegas Golden Knights (+1400)
- Dallas Stars (+1600)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (+2000)
- Minnesota Wild (+2200)
- Los Angeles Kings (+2500)
Odds to Win 1st Round Series
- Islanders (+180) vs. Hurricanes (-210)
- Panthers (+280) vs. Bruins (-350)
- Wild Series (+125) vs. Stars (-145)
- Kings (+210) vs. Oilers (-250)
- Rangers (-105) vs. Devils (-115)
- Lightning (+145) vs. Maple Leafs (-165)
- Jets (+135) vs. Golden Knights (-155)
- Kraken (+245) vs. Avalanche (-290)
Always fascinating the difference between the NHL and NBA first-round odds. Boston is the biggest favorite at -350 and the NBA had five series prices larger than that on favorites.
At least two hockey favorites will not make it out of the first round.
NBA – Charles Barkley Opinions
In a world of being buttoned down by corporate culture, Charles Barkley has voiced strong thoughts against the NBA in telling people “not to watch” series that appear to be mismatches or the starting times of games like T-Wolves vs Nuggets at 10 ET on Sunday night.
The NBA and TNT cannot be pleased and while Chuck isn’t wrong with what he said, he’s paid to watch and comment, not go after his money-maker. Keep an eye on this one.
Top Betting System
NBA Playoffs – Monday
Play On any team (Brooklyn and Golden State) when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Recently these teams are 30-7 ATS when this situation pops up.Out the Door
NBA – Hot Trend
After 14 games in the playoffs, the team leading after the first quarter is 11-2 SU to win the game (one tie) and 12-1 ATS against the original point spread. This is worth looking at in-game NBA odds for the SU winner of a contest.
The rate of success won’t stay this hot, but worth understanding.
NBA – Why the NBA Playoffs Can Be Hard to Win Against
Typically, when breaking down a series of games for the NBA Playoffs, you can only follow what you know are the facts. Sure, you might sense or find an edge that matters, but by and large that’s it.
A perfect example of the unpredictability aspect is the Lakers getting 52 points from Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura (40% of L.A. points) on 19 of 27 (70%) shooting which included 8 of 11 (72%) from behind the arc Sunday.
You might have liked the Lakers to win and cover, but not because of those two. If you had Memphis, those elements are frustrating.
Golf – Patrick Cantlay Is Slow
Patrick Cantlay, one of the best golfers in the world, is known for his slow play. For reasons unknown, the PGA Tour has rules for this but they never go after their top players.
Cantlay has been getting crushed on social media the last two weekends for his play and here is a perfect example of what we are talking about.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 4 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (40-27-1 record 20-9 run)
- Warriors
- Nets/76ers Over
- Celtics (highest for tomorrow)
- Cavaliers
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (19-12 record)
- Rays
- Rays/Reds Over
- Rangers
- Cubs
- Rockies
NHL Top 4 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (36-25 record and 12-4 move)
- Bruins
- Oilers
- Avalanche (highest for tomorrow)
- Maple Leafs
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
