BMR Social
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By: Doug Upstone
Of course, it was a busy week of NBA and NHL action and we’ll supply the highlights if you missed them. Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates are doing their best Tampa Bay imitation and we have an oddity about their current spot in the NL Central. Our public betting segment continues to rock if you are following. Finally, the NFL Draft is Thursday and we are begging teams not to take this player early.
About Last Weekend…
NBA
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in serious trouble after losing twice at Madison Square Garden. We like many questioned how Jalen Brunson at his size (6-1) would fit into the Knicks’ backcourt but in truth, he’s the reason New York is likely to advance for the first time in a decade.The Kings and Warriors played a fabulous game Sunday, with Golden State surviving. This looks like it will go the full seven games and the Kings are 3-1 ATS thus far.
Atlanta played two excellent games at home versus Boston but only came away with one victory. The Hawks need a stronger frontcourt and more defense. Not sure where that comes from in the next two years.
How good is Anthony Edwards from Minnesota and just think what he will become if he keeps improving. He’s the only reason the T-Wolves survived in OT against Denver to extend the series.
NHL
Boston and Carolina both won Game 4s on the road and should wrap up their series in the next contest.Crazy that there were four OT games over the weekend and the visitor took them all. When a hockey playoff game goes beyond three periods, the team you had on your betting ticket just became a coin flip. Comforting right?
The Oilers and Kings series has only proven getting off to a lead means nothing. Each club had significant leads and thanks to somewhat shaky goaltending and defensemen out of position, the trailing team keeps coming back and they have won three of the four with Edmonton’s win last night.
MLB
Gotta love MLB betting. The Braves and Brewers took leads into the 8th inning Sunday and both bullpens were Top 6 in runs allowed through Saturday. Atlanta gives up five runs and is swept at home by Houston and the Brewers allow nine tallies and lost its series to Boston Sunday.Tampa Bay is almost indescribable at 19-3 and they are 13-0 at home, which ties for the longest home win streak to start a season in the live ball era with the 2009 Dodgers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates went 7-0 this past week. That gives the Pirates the best record in the NL at 16-7 and they are the second-best bet this season at +13.2 units.
Saturday night Kansas City ended a streak of 126 games in which they trailed by multiple runs and lost in the top of the ninth inning. The Royals hung a 5-spot on the board at Anaheim and won 11-8 as +150 underdogs.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite.
- Memphis is 3-18-1 ATS as a road dog, including 1-15-1 ATS when taking fewer than 7 points.
- Atlanta is 4-16 ATS after playing two consecutive home games. (Tuesday)
- Denver is 15-5 ATS in home games having won three of their last four games. (Tuesday)
- L.A. Clippers are 5-15 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season. (Tuesday)
NHL
- N.Y. Rangers are 9-1 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
- Toronto is 9-23 when leading in a playoff series.
- Vegas is 9-1 in road games after a road game where both teams scored three or more goals.
- Colorado is 17-6 Over in road games after three straight games with 33 or more shots on goal.
- Carolina is 9-0 ATS in home games in the first round of the playoffs the last three seasons. (Tuesday)
- Dallas is 16-8 Under in home games in the second half of the season. (Tuesday)
- Los Angeles is 13-4 Over in road games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 5 or more goals. (Tuesday)
MLB
- Arizona is 22-11 after having lost four of their last five games.
- C. Bassitt of the Blue Jays is 21-4 vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less since 2021. (Team's Record)
- Arizona is 20-4 Over vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better.
- Detroit is 30-10 Under after four or more consecutive Unders.
- L.A. Dodgers are 0-7 (-11.3 Units) after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. (Tuesday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
We move along to Game 4s and Game 5s, and some of the latter could wrap up their first-round series. See if you agree with our experts on their selections of NBA picks.MLB
Time to start out the week with a variety of free MLB picks with several betting options like money lines, totals, along with 1st 5 innings along with various prop bets.NHL
As the first-round series develops we have the latest information on who should win each contest and see if we can predict who will move on or see their season conclude this week at the NHL picks.NFL Draft
The NFL Draft starts Thursday and it has been a wild last week as rumors are flying about who goes where. Review our best NFL value picks right here.The Buzz
NBA – Playoff Betting Trends
- Favorites: 18-11-1 ATS
- Home teams: 20-9-1 ATS
- Home favorites: 14-5 ATS
- The team that wins has gone 28-2 ATS.
NFL Draft - Don’t Do This
Though Will Levis is the fourth choice to be the No. 1 pick, he’s the top bet at -135 to go as the second overall selection.Teams like the Colts and Texans are thrilled with his supposed physical throwing ability. Levis had a pretty good junior year at Kentucky but also had a strong O-Line and running game. Last year he had neither and was a sitting duck in the pocket lacking in mobility.
In two seasons he basically averaged an interception per game and while he can throw the ball 50 yards from his knees (which means the play would be over), he’s a project on teams that are looking to start winning immediately. Maybe we’ll be wrong, but closer to JaMarcus Russell than Josh Allen.
NBA – Bucks Defense, Where Did It Go?
During the regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks were No. 2 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense at 45.6%. In their last five games, they have allowed better than 50% shooting each time. Sure, Giannis has missed the last two, but he also missed 19 regular season games.For Milwaukee to win Game 4, of this series and be a threat to win another NBA title, they need more defensive effort, intensity, and better game plans.
Top Betting System
NBA Playoffs
Bucks (-7.5) vs. Heat
Play On road favorites like Milwaukee after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games. Since 2019, teams like the Bucks are 31-6 ATS in this situation, winning by 15.2 PPG.
Out the Door
NBA – Why Do NBA Players Try and Get in LeBron James's Face?
Dillon Brooks felt he had something to prove to LeBron in his team’s series against the Lakers. Brooks went through all his antics and James largely ignored him.
After what looked like a pregame apology of sorts by Brooks before Game 3, James just gave him a blank look and the Lakers buried Memphis in the first quarter 35-9. Brooks got a weak technical call for sort of hitting James and was ejected.
As is the case in today’s work, today’s villain quickly turns into the victim when the outcome they wanted or expected doesn’t occur. Here’s a better idea, leave the bear alone, don’t poke him.
MLB – More on the Pirates
Barry Bonds last season in Pittsburgh was in 1992. Since then, no team has spent less time leading their division in baseball.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (46-31-1 Record 26-13 Run)
- Grizzlies/Lakers Over
- Clippers (Highest for tomorrow)
- T-Wolves/Nuggets Over
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (30-16 Record)
- Angels
- Brewers
- Blue Jays
- Guardians
- Astros/Rays Over
NHL Top 4 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (44-30 Record and 20-9 Move)
- Rangers
- Golden Knights/Jets Over
- Hurricanes (Highest for tomorrow)
- Stars
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
