BMR Social
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2022
- Messages
- 237
By: Doug Upstone
The two most impressive things from last evening were Tampa Bay now at 11-0 and the Boston Bruins now owning every single regular season record in the NHL, incredible! The NBA play-in games started and we have a Hot angle you should look at before placing your bets tonight.
People are always bashing the betting public, we have the numbers to prove they are doing pretty well in most major sports, which you should know about.
About Last Night…
NBA
Atlanta was the aggressor from the opening tip and took it to Miami, winning by 11 as 5.5-point underdogs. It could have been worse as the Hawks were only 16 for 27 at the free-throw line. Atlanta, led by center Clint Capela, who has 21 rebounds (8 offensive), destroyed the Heat on the glass 63-39. Atlanta advances to face Boston this weekend.The Timberwolves had the Lakers down by double digits most of the game and seemed destined to win. Then, 38-year-old LeBron James decided to do what he does and he led the comeback by scoring 30 points. The game was exciting if not well played. Minnesota got the cover but has to be disappointed, but they will at least have a home game Friday vs. the Pelicans or Thunder for the right to face Denver.
The T-Wolves scored 16 total points in the fourth quarter and OT, which is the fewest points scored by any team in that exact stretch in NBA postseason history.
Betting Note: All Play-in Games are 11-3 Under and have fallen below the total in eight straight contests.
MLB
Miami beat Philadelphia as +126 underdogs 8-4 thanks to Luis Arraez hitting for the cycle for the Marlins. The Orioles hung a 12-spot on Oakland because Ryan Mountcastle drove in nine runs. If this seems like an unusual feat, you are correct, as those two events occurring on the same day have not happened in 87 years.
NHL
Congrats to the Boston Bruins who now have the greatest all-time records in the regular season with their victory over Washington yesterday. It will become more meaningful if they win the Stanley Cup and they are +300 to do so at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), with Colorado second at +650.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Toronto is 15-6 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.
- Oklahoma City is 19-8 ATS when playing with two days' rest.
- Atlanta is 1-14 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). (Saturday)
- New York is 13-1 ATS when playing six or less games in 14 days this season. (Saturday)
- Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more games. (Saturday)
MLB
- Baltimore is 30-15 (+22 Units) after four or more consecutive home games in the last two seasons.
- Kansas City is 15-5 Over vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more RPG.
- L.A. Dodgers are 16-5 Over having lost four of their last five games since 2021.
- H. Greene of the Reds is 0-11 when the total is 8 to 8.5. (Team's Record)
- Milwaukee is 12-3 vs. teams whose hitters have drawn four walks or more a game since 2021. (Thursday)
NHL
- N.Y. Islanders are 7-0 Under in home games after allowing four goals or more.
- St. Louis is 3-14 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record.
- San Jose is 0-17 playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.
- Edmonton is 24-2 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. (Thursday)
- Seattle is 5-14 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record. (Thursday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
MLB
With our revised format, we have even more free MLB picks for you that include ML, totals, and run lines. This plus our usual array of prop bets and parlays.NBA
It is Day 2 of the Play-In Tournament and we have the Bulls vs. Raptors and Thunder vs. Pelicans and the winners advance to Friday’s elimination matchup. Also, check out our top props for these contests.NHL
Just three days left in the hockey regular season and there is still uncertainty about seeding for the playoffs, we’ll cover it all and have our best NHL picks and more.Football
We have a load of football this weekend with the start of the USFL season and Week 9 in the XFL.Golf
With The Masters completed, we move ahead to the RBC Heritage and we have Odds Analysis and a Betting Preview for you.The Buzz
NBA – Series Price Thus Far (Bovada)
- Brooklyn (+575) vs. Philadelphia (-900)
- Atlanta (+650) vs. Boston (-1100)
- New York (+180) vs. Cleveland (-220)
- Sacramento (+225) vs. Golden State (-275)
- L.A. Lakers (+110) vs. Memphis (-130)
- Phoenix (-550) vs. L.A. Clippers (+390)
Series betting is hard in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The numbers on most of the higher-seeded favorites are massive and if you would lose, it might take you the rest of the playoffs to break even.
The Lakers and Warriors numbers are fascinating, but you have to do a lot of work to make a firm case for all the teams in that series.
MLB – Running Out of Superlatives About Tampa Bay
The Rays’ start is hard to comprehend at 11-0. Thanks to diligent research departments in the sports world, they always find something more interesting, like this.
MLB – Salt Lake City Latest to Seek an MLB Franchise
Today we learned a group from Salt Lake City wants to become a major league baseball city, joining Las Vegas, Nashville, Portland, Charlotte, and Montreal among the other potential candidates.
Oakland and Tampa Bay have unsettled stadium situations and Commissioner Rob Manfred told ESPN last July: "I would love to get to 32 teams."
Top Betting System
MLB – Marlins vs. Phillies (-195 ML)
Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Phillies, whose team's hitters draw three or less walks a game, against an opposing starting pitcher who walked five or more hitters in his last outing. Clubs like Philadelphia are 58-8 in this situation. The Phils are also a potential run-line play because the average score differential is 2.6 runs a game.Out the Door
NBA – The Cali Crew Is Coming
For the first time ever, all four California teams are in the NBA playoffs.MLB – More Beer Talk
Monday, I talked about the loss of beer revenue with shorter games based on time. Here are the latest reports as to what is being projected and who is joining the Brewers.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (36-25-1 record 16-7 run)
- Bulls/Raptors Over
NHL Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (33-24 record and 9-3 move)
- Flames
- Sharks/Flames Over
- Islanders
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (13-8 record)
- Blue Jays
- Astros
- Braves
- Cardinals
- Marlins/Phillies Over
