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By: Doug Upstone
In the postseason, you mostly get one good shot to close out a series if it is not the seventh game. The 76ers had that chance and feebly let it slip away. The Nuggets and Hurricanes did what Philadelphia could not, which we talk about. The NFL schedules are out and the debates start across the country about season win totals.
On the personality side, we talk about Tom Brady, Mark Jackson, and the NBA crews on TNT and ESPN. This and all your free picks and top trends for a Mother’s Day weekend. Make sure to spend time or call your mother, it’s your responsibility.
About Last Night…
NBA
For a second straight year, the Phoenix came home in a second-round playoff game and got destroyed and eliminated. Locked into Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the new Suns’ ownership group will have to decide to move forward and rework the rest of the roster or possibly start over.Denver advances to the West Finals and looking at who is likely to remain on Monday, the Nuggets look as good as anyone to win the title given their homecourt edge.
Philadelphia came from behind and had a lead in the fourth quarter and appeared poised to close out Boston. Then Jayson Tatum, who was letting the Celtics’ season slip away with his terrible play, scored 16 points in the fourth quarter, after having three points prior to that. The Sixers (+2.5) scored 13 points at home in the fourth quarter of a closeout game; do that, you deserve what you get. If you are thinking about Philly for Game 7, know this…
NHL
Carolina (-145) was running 80 or more percent at every sportsbook we could check and when the game went to OT, Hurricanes bettors and the books had to be a little nervous. But the Hurricanes won and now advance and they might be the betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup once the Final Four is set.Dallas (-200) held serve and slammed Seattle 5-2 to take a 3-2 edge. The Stars’ offense is starting to overwhelm the Kraken defense. Dallas could wrap it up on the road Saturday.
MLB
Though many are aware of the start Tampa Bay has put together in 2023, they probably are less familiar with the Rays’ roster. Last night Drew Rasmussen keyed the Rays to an 8-2 thumping of the Yankees on the road as +105 underdogs. Tampa Bay is now 30-9 and here is how special Rasmussen has pitched.Oakland lost 4-0 to Texas, not a surprise for a team that is 8-31. The A’s are losing by 3.74 runs a game and have a -146 run differential. To understand how bad this is, the Chicago White Sox have the next worst run differential at -68, which is less than half of the Athletics’ miserable figure.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- New York is 11-3 Under after a game when outrebounding the opponent by 15 or more.
- Golden State is 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less this season.
- Boston is 22-8 Under when playing with two days of rest.
NHL
- Florida is 10-2 Over after a one-goal loss in their previous game this season.
- Vegas is 7-0 in home games off a road loss this season.
- Seattle is 7-18 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MLB
- Baltimore is 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
- N.Y. Mets are 3-11 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
- Detroit is 12-4 (+12.5 Units) after shutting out their opponent since 2021.
- Atlanta is 15-3 in road games this season.
- Boston is 21-7 in home games vs. a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
- Cleveland is 12-2 Under after scoring three runs or less in two straight games this season.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
There are two possible elimination Game 6’s games tonight with the Knicks vs. Heat and Warriors vs. Lakers. Next, we move ahead to Sunday and for Game 7, the 76ers vs. Celtics. Check out our free NBA picks for all of them.MLB
This upcoming weekend we have our usual array of 15 series. There are five in each league and five interleague affairs. Get all our free MLB picks and props by stopping by daily.NHL
This evening Florida has a second crack at eliminating Toronto. The winners between Edmonton and Vegas go up 3-2 in their series. On Saturday, Dallas can reach the West Finals with a victory in Seattle. Check out our NHL picks for every matchup,UFC
There is a ton of action on Charlotte with a huge card and we have best bets, props, and parlays all for free for you.XFL
Saturday is the XFL title game between the Renegades vs. Defenders. Get the complete breakdown and free XFL picks on Thursday.The Buzz
NFL – Schedules Are Released and the World Goes Insane for No Reason
The NFL schedule release sends hearts a flutter. Fans can make their own thoughts about how their team might do and Thursday and Friday is fantastic for sports talk radio. But in the end, trying to use last season’s record to forecast this year is often an act of futility.Two things we saw caught our attention. The New York Giants will play seven of their first 11 games on the road with no bye involved. That will be hard.
The L.A. Rams will face four different teams coming off a bye week. The most anyone else will face is two.
NFL – Maybe Tom Brady Will Wear Silver and Black After All
NBA – Mark Jackson Admits “Really” Dumb Mistake
At least Jackson owned up to it publicly.Top Betting System
NBA – Giants vs. Diamondbacks (-170) – Saturday
Play on NL home favorites with a moneyline of -150 or more like Arizona, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, where the team's hitters draw three walks or less a game.If a home team is this size a favorite with an impatient offense, the pitcher must be very good (Zac Gallen, true), yet, they still score an above-average amount of runs (D-Backs 8th in MLB). Teams like Arizona are 65-10 in this spot in the last five seasons.
Out The Door
NBA Playoffs – TNT Crushes ESPN in Studio Shows
While Charles Barkley gives some eyebrow analysis from time to time, he looks like a basketball savant compared to the entire crew at ESPN.ESPN data must show that they pick new watchers with limited knowledge because Mike Greenberg said the reason New York lost both games in Miami was because of the heat and humidity.
We watched both games, and they were played inside. With that logic, the Knicks should never lose a home game in the winter to Miami or any other teams from the south or SoCal. And nobody challenged him on this. Not sure what happened to Jalen Rose, who seems more interested in entertaining than what is happening on the court.
TNT might not always be right, but they are talking basketball.
Betting – And Yet There Are Limits
MLB – Baseball Betting
I’m looking forward to the Braves at Blue Jays series and the Padres at Dodgers series. This should be great baseball.I bet the Twins to win their series over the Cubs.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 1 Bet by Percentage (highest first) (61-38-1 record 40-22 run)
- Heat
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (49-35 record, 4-1 run)
- Brewers
- Cardinal/Red Sox Over
- Rays/Yankees Over
- Braves/Blue Jays Over
- Astros
NHL Top 1 Bet by Percentage (highest first) (33-21 run)
- Stars
Let’s get some winners! Have a great weekend and see you back here Monday.
