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By: Doug Upstone
The San Antonio Spurs tanked and it paid off getting the No.1 overall pick, and Victor Wembanyama is believed to be a generational talent. Aaron Judge had a weird deal going on with his eyes Monday and we investigated it further.
We have the latest Stanley Cup odds and PGA Championship odds. For golf, we dole out some free picks. Plus, our usual recap of last night along with more free picks and a baseball confrontation that happened today and 18 years ago!
About Last Night…
NBA
It was a very entertaining Game 1 of the West Finals with Denver owning the first half and the Lakers most of the fourth quarter. It will be very interesting to see where we go from here. Los Angeles established itself in the two-point area going 35-for-60 (58.3%) and if they can continue anywhere close to that they are in the Finals.Denver’s defense allowed 72 points in the second half and that won’t cut it to win the west. The Nuggets’ ball movement was great, but they need defensive intensity for 48 minutes.
Another factor to watch is the plus-minus for bench players. For those unfamiliar, that metric measures each player on the floor and how many points their team scored or allowed when they played. Last night the Lakers bench was +18 and the Nuggets bench was -31.
MLB
Toronto was 12-3 at home coming into their series with the Yankees. The Blue Jays are now 12-5 after being decidedly beaten by three runs in each contest. New York is only a game behind Toronto in the standings and not one person on Twitter has called for GM Brian Cashman to be fired for the millionth time. One last comment, Aaron Judge likes playing against the Jays.When it comes to the Oakland A’s, the number of bright spots is about the same as hitting an eight-team parlay. However, the A’s hit the jackpot with a grand slam in the bottom of the 7th to tie Arizona and a walk-off single in the 12th as +143 home underdogs. Turns out there was a little more to the story.
Clayton Kershaw was outdueled at home by Minnesota’s Bailey Ober. The Twins pitcher only allowed one run in six innings while Kershaw permitted two in four innings, having already tossed 90 pitches and only 57 were strikes.
NBA
The San Antonio Spurs won the first pick in the draft and everyone assumes it will be Victor Wembanyama. The last two times the Spurs had the top pick they got David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Not bad.Trendy Talk
MLB – (All night games)
- Baltimore is 12-4 after seven or more consecutive home games.
- N.Y. Mets are 0-7 after allowing eight runs or more.
- Atlanta is 14-6 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better.
- Chicago Cubs are 0-10 after five or more consecutive Overs since 2021.
- Boston is 16-4 Over vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs a game on the season.
- N.Y. Yankees are 7-0 Over after three or more consecutive Overs this season.
NBA
- Miami is 22-10 Over versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3-point shots a game.
- Denver is 17-6 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. (Thursday)
NHL
- Carolina is 18-3 after winning their previous game in overtime the last two seasons. (Thursday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
The Eastern Conference Finals commence this evening and we have it broken down in various ways. Return Thursday for Game 2, Lakers vs. Nuggets, and we’ll do exactly the same thing for you, all with free NBA picks.MLB
The daily (wonderful) grind of baseball continues and we continue to deliver free MLB picks on sides, totals, parlays, and props.NHL
The Final Four of the Stanley Cup starts Thursday with Florida vs. Carolina, followed Friday by Dallas vs. Vegas. See who has the Game 1 edge and more with our NHL picks.Golf
Time for the second major of the year in golf with the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. We are providing odds, analysis, and a betting preview.The Buzz
Golf - 2nd Major Starts Thursday
The course is Oak Hill C.C. in Rochester, N.Y. for the PGA Championship. Justin Thomas is the defending champion and Jordan Spieth is chasing a career grand slam, needing this on his resume.Here are the favorites for the second major of the season.
- Jon Rahm (+800)
- Scottie Scheffler (+800)
- Rory McIlroy (+1500)
- Xander Schauffele (+1600)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
- Brooks Koepka (+2200)
- Tony Finau (+2200)
We believe the winner will come from this group. For bettors, three picks we like.
- Rahm Top 5 (+130)
- Cantlay Top 10 (+175) and Top 20 (-120)
WNBA – Vegas Aces Penalized
The defending WNBA champion Aces were penalized for violating - Respect in the Workplace policies. Former Aces player Dearica Hamby alleged the team moved her due to her pregnancy. They will lose a first-round draft choice and coach Becky Hammond is suspended for two games.That is bad news for Hammond, who has interviewed for NBA jobs, this might be her undoing.
NHL – Conference Finals Betting Odds from Bovada
- Carolina (-130) over Florida (+110)
- Vegas (-140) over Dallas (+120)
The betting odds certainly suggest a six-game series at least.
Carolina is the overall favorite at +230, with Vegas not far behind at +230.
Top Betting System
NBA – Lakers (+5.5) vs. Nuggets
Play Against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the L.A. Lakers in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. The reasoning is despite what the old zig-zag theory is/was, when the spread is in this range it doesn’t work. Teams like the Lakers are 5-32 ATS in this spot, including 0-8 ATS this season.Out the Door
NBA – Doc Rivers Fired
It was a matter of time before Doc Rivers was fired in Philadelphia after losing to Boston with two chances to put them away. Two takeaways, Rivers is an above-average coach who has gotten worse at making playoff adjustments.Second, the 76ers’ roster is good enough to win a lot of games but lacks the star power to be a factor in the postseason.
MLB – Aaron Judge Eyes Ordeal
On Monday, the Blue Jays TV crew caught this and wondered aloud what he might be looking at.While nobody is questioning what is happening with Judge, it certainly looks odd. In all likelihood it was nothing. Still, it raised a question, Judge didn’t like it a bit and told the Toronto announcers, both of who worked a long time for ESPN while doing Jays games, brought up a fair point.
UPDATE: Toronto pitcher Jay Jackson who was facing Judge when this happened said he was later told he was “tipping his pitches”. That almost concludes this story but one has to wonder if the 1st base coach was signaling this to Judge.
NHL – Coyotes Lose Vote to Play in Tempe
https://frontofficesports.com/futures-of-senators-coyotes-will-be-decided-soon
MLB – Time Traveling
Pittsburgh played Detroit earlier today and Rich Hill faced Miguel Cabrera. They also met each other a long time ago.
https://twitter.com/joe_block/status/1658835576345317376?s=20
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
MLB - Top 4 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (59-36 record, 13-2 run)
- Orioles (night games only)
- Mariners/Red Sox Over
- Rays/Mets Over
- Yankees
NBA Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (61-39-1 record 40-23 run)
- Heat/Celtics Over (Thursday)
NHL Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (34-21 run)
- Panthers/Hurricanes Over (Thursday)
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Friday.
