NFL underdog predictions Week 1: best bets to cover the spread include Raiders, Giants
When it comes to NFL betting against the spread, underdogs are the way to go. Sharp bettors have known this for some time, and the public is beginning to catch on.
During the 2021 regular season, underdogs covered at a 52.6 percent clip, going 140-126-3 against the closing lines at the best online sportsbooks. In 2020, they were even better with a .551 ATS win percentage (141-115).
While blindly betting underdogs doesn’t guarantee a winning percentage over .500, you’ll get a decent head start at finishing in the black if you’re diligent and disciplined in your underdog focus.
There are plenty of options among the 16-game slate but below are our NFL Week 1 underdog best bets.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Titans had quite an interesting 2021 season. They beat the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and 49ers. They also swept the Colts, its biggest competition in the AFC South.But Tennessee also lost to the Jets, Texans, Patriots (by 23 points), and Cardinals (by 25), and was upset by the Bengals at home in the divisional playoff round after earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
The offseason then seems to have brought more questions than answers to the Music City with the departures of A.J. Brown, Rodger Saffold, and Jayon Brown.
The Giants, meanwhile, have won just 22 games over the past five seasons. But they profile as the exact kind of overlooked team that gave the Titans trouble last season, especially with the uncertainty the visitors present in the opener with a new coaching staff.
Despite their recent struggles, the Giants have been a strong underdog play, posting the league’s fourth-best ATS record (21-12) as a road underdog since the start of the 2018 season.
The Titans likely will still find a way to win Week 1, but we’re confident that the G-Men will contain Derrick Henry enough to keep things close after solidifying its defensive front in the offseason.
Pick: Giants +6 or better (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
These two AFC West foes are opening the new regular season after closing the last one with arguably the best game of 2021. It was the Raiders’ 35-32 overtime home win in Week 18, and that thrilling victory decided the AFC’s final playoff spot.Brandon Staley, Justin Herbert, and the Bolts certainly will be out to avenge that crushing defeat. And on the other side of the ball, Los Angeles has added the likes of Kahlil Mack and J.C. Jackson as defensive reinforcements to address its biggest deficiencies.
But the Silver and Black didn’t exactly stand pat this offseason, adding one of the game’s top wide receivers in Davante Adams and feared edge rusher Chandler Jones. The Raiders also have the advantage of a new coaching staff headed by former Patriots master tactician Josh McDaniels.
By the time the Chargers develop a decent sense of how the McDaniels and the Raiders want to attack, things will most likely have settled into a close game. That’s why we’re grabbing Vegas and the four points.
Pick: Raiders +4 or better (-110)
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Lions were the only team to not be favored in any of game last season, and they wound up tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars with a league-low three wins.But Detroit, as you may have heard, finished with the league’s fourth-best ATS record at 11-6. That included a 6-2 ATS mark at home where the Lions posted all three of their wins.
On Halloween, though, Detroit endured its worst loss of the season — a 44-6 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Eagles.
Both teams looked to have improved since then but Detroit coach Dan Campbell surely has been replaying last season’s beat down since the opener was announced in May. Give us the Lions and the points at home.
