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West Virginia @ Pittsburgh

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biggins

biggins

Joined
Jan 18, 2022
Messages
3,924
Week 1 of the college football season is here and we waste no time with a loaded Thursday slate of games.

The first night of Week 1 is headlined by the renewal of The Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

Pitt won the ACC Championship last season, but must replace its first-round pick quarterback, Biletnikoff Award winning wide receiver and offensive coordinator. Can the Panthers get off to a hot start at home against a West Virginia team that has some upside on hand with transfer quarterback JT Daniels reuniting with OC Graham Harrell from their time at USC?
Pitt had a magical season in 2021 behind a high octane offense, winning the ACC Championship and the Peach Bowl. However, Narduzzi appears to be going back to his roots, relying on a physical defense and a ground game to outlast his opponents.

That's a bit concerning for me and I don't envision Narduzzi is going to find the success he had last season. By focusing on the running game he is going to run into a similar issue he had prior to the Kenny Pickett led team last season, in which he struggled to pull away from teams he was expected to beat, evident in his 12-18-2 ATS mark as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh had an excellent campaign last season that ultimately ended on a sour note. The Panthers went 11-3 overall, cruising to a 7-1 record in the ACC. Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division with that mark and took out Wake Forest 45-21 in the ACC Championship Game.

The Panthers’ two losses during the 2021 regular season were both close—44-41 versus Western Michigan and 38-34 against Miami-FL. After the win over Wake in the conference championship, Pittsburgh fell to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl 31-21 to end the year.


Meanwhile, West Virginia enters this season with question marks of its own is and expected to be considerably worse than the Pitt. The Mountaineers have a win total of 5.5 while the Panthers have a lofty number of 8.5. However, this matchup fits the mold of a spot where Narduzzi struggles.

I also think there is some upside to the Mountaineers with talented yet often injured quarterback Daniels coming from Georgia by way of USC. If Daniels and Harrell catch lightning in a bottle and get the passing game going against a stout Pitt defense, this game has all the makings of a barn burner, especially with the hosts being shallow on vertical threats.

West Virginia is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 in September and 2-5 ATS in their last seven in the ACC. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five in September and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 overall. Pitt is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
 
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