Spencer Strider (68% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the top streaming option who stands a chance of being available in your league. He's been nothing short of dominant this year with a 13.5 K/9, a 2.87 ERA, and a 2.51 xFIP. If Strider is gone, Trevor Williams(sub-1% rostered) will almost certainly be available. He projects as a top-five pitcher for Thursday according to THE BAT X, right behind Strider and right ahead of (checks notes) Gerrit Cole. Matchup quality will do that, as Williams gets to face a below-average Miami Marlins offense in an extreme pitchers' park.
- Much has been made of Tony Gonsolin this year (10 wins with a 1.54 ERA) and there's even talk of him starting the All-Star Game, but his matchup today is mediocre and, honestly, if he's still on your team, why? You should be trying to trade him as quickly as possible. He's literally the exact same guy he's always been, just with a ton of good luck this year. Having a .186 BABIP and a 91% LOB would make Patrick Corbin look like a stud. In reality, Gonsolin is an above-average pitcher with a short leash, and nothing more. Expect a low-4.00s ERA over the rest of the season. He's not worth starting today in shallower leagues, and in deeper leagues you should be looking to dump him ASAP.
- The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Piratesplay a double-header today, which would automatically make anyone who plays both games one of the top streaming options, but even if you don't happen to get lucky like that, guys here still figure to be elite streamers anyway. The Reds occupy two of the top-five spots in THE BAT X's projected runs scored among all teams on the slate. The Pirates occupy one of those remaining top-five spots. Both games are in the elite-hitting Great American Ball Park and the weather projects to be in the mid-80s. Stack as many of the hitters from this pair of contests as you can.
Why Jordan Luplow is a strong pickup option for Thursday
Jordan Luplow leads off and hits for power against left-handed pitching, and he is scheduled to face one on Thursday, so fantasy managers should pounce on this opportunity.- With Craig Kimbrel banged up, Brusdar Graterol (3%) picked up the save for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night. He should be an immediate pickup in every single league. He's already a top-15 reliever in baseball if you don't care about saves. Now, with the chance for saves upcoming, he needs to be rostered. Besides, if nothing else, he has a great schedule this week facing the Colorado Rockies, followed by the Chicago Cubs.
Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN's standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher's win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
FPTS Team Pitcher T Opp W% IP ER BR K 17.9 Justin Verlander R KC 60.7% 6.3 1.8 6.2 6.7 13.3 Dylan Cease R DET 37.3% 5.7 2.1 6.8 6.9 12.6 Kevin Gausman R @SEA 31.3% 5.5 2.0 6.4 6.5 12.6 Joe Musgrove R SF 34.5% 5.8 2.3 6.7 6.2 12.4 Gerrit Cole R @BOS 35.5% 5.8 2.8 7.0 7.4 11.9 Tony Gonsolin R CHC 31.8% 4.9 1.6 5.3 5.2 10.7 Mike Minor L PIT, Gm. 2 35.8% 5.7 2.8 7.0 5.8 10.4 Logan Webb R @SD 29.6% 5.6 2.2 7.0 5.2 10.2 Spencer Strider R STL 29.7% 5.0 2.2 6.3 5.6 9.3 Marco Gonzales L TOR 32.8% 5.7 2.7 7.3 4.8 8.8 JT Brubaker R @CIN, Gm. 1 28.1% 5.2 2.7 6.9 5.5 8.7 Austin Gomber L @ARI 29.1% 5.1 2.4 6.5 4.6 7.7 Beau Brieske R @CWS 24.4% 5.4 2.8 7.1 4.7 7.5 Trevor Williams R MIA 24.1% 4.9 2.6 6.7 4.9 7.2 Daniel Castano L @NYM 22.1% 4.7 2.2 6.4 3.8 6.8 Jordan Lyles R LAA 33.2% 5.6 3.7 7.9 5.1 6.4 Joan Adon R @PHI 23.2% 5.0 2.9 7.2 4.9 6.1 Josh Winckowski R NYY 23.5% 4.9 3.0 7.1 4.6 5.8 Chase Silseth R @BAL 14.1% 4.2 2.4 5.6 4.0 5.5 Bailey Falter L WSH 9.8% 4.0 2.2 5.6 3.8 5.3 Matthew Liberatore L @ATL 12.6% 4.4 2.6 6.3 4.3 4.8 Mark Leiter Jr. R @LAD 5.7% 3.6 1.8 4.9 3.4 4.6 Bryse Wilson R @CIN, Gm. 2 12.9% 4.5 2.9 6.5 4.1 4.2 Kris Bubic L @HOU 9.3% 4.8 2.9 7.4 4.7 4.1 Dallas Keuchel L COL 23.4% 5.0 3.2 8.0 3.8 -- TBD - PIT, Gm. 1 -- -- -- -- -- Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
- Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF -- 4%) vs. JT Brubaker
- Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B -- 2%) at Mike Minor
- Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B -- 8%) vs. Brubaker
- Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B -- 0%) vs. Brubaker
- Nick Senzel (CIN, CF -- 3%) vs. Brubaker
- Matt Reynolds (CIN, SS -- 0%) vs. Brubaker
- Michael Perez (PIT, C -- 0%) at Minor
- Diego Castillo (PIT, 2B -- 0%) at Minor
- Michael Chavis (PIT, 2B -- 3%) at Minor
- Jack Suwinski (PIT, RF -- 5%) at Minor
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
- Dylan Carlson (STL, CF -- 58%) at Strider
- Whit Merrifield (KC, 2B -- 95%) at Justin Verlander
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS -- 95%) at Verlander
- Christian Vazquez (BOS, C -- 61%) vs. Cole
- Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF -- 66%) at Joe Musgrove
- Javier Baez (DET, SS -- 77%) at Dylan Cease
- Tommy Edman (STL, 2B -- 99%) at Strider
- Andrew Benintendi (KC, LF -- 87%) at Verlander
- Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B -- 54%) vs. Kevin Gausman
- J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS -- 74%) vs. Gausman
