Long Shot Pick: Publisher to Place First at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It is Kentucky Derby week, and there’s a myriad of ways to bet on this race. We’ll have our picks, and at the same time give you options to consider if you happen to like something else at the sportsbooks. Let’s start at the beginning.
To Win Options (in Order)
8) Journalism (3-1 odds)
Four wins in four tries with the top speed rating in the field (108) and the best group of three. There is no need to overthink this year’s Derby in the top slot.
18) Sovereignty (5-1)
With two wins and two places in five starts, this horse is ready. In both victories, he was running hard at the finish, which suggests the added distance should not be an issue.
17) Sandman (6-1)
A bit of a wild card because he’s a deep closer (coming far off the pace). However, it is hard to ignore three wins, one in the Arkansas Derby.
Top Longshots to Win (in Order)
13) Publisher (20-1)
This is the only horse in the field without a win (seven tries). Yet, he keeps improving, and being saddled by Irad Ortiz Jr. is believed to be extremely positive. Wouldn’t this be a story if the maiden win was at Churchill?
14) Tiztastic (20-1)
Won the Louisiana Derby and was rather highly thought of at that moment, but seems to have lost some juice among horse players who still like him, just not as much as others have generated some appeal.
9) Burnham Square (12-1)
Maybe not longshot odds, still, has the talent. As is the case with those having double-digit odds, if the pace favors the horse early and he can find a lane heading down the home stretch, anything becomes possible.
Across the Board Bets – Betting to Finish 1, 2 and 3
- #8 Journalism
- #18 SovereigntyÂ
- Big Show (3rd Place Only) Bet: #13 PublisherÂ
7) Luxor Cafe (15-1)
The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah brings four straight wins to this year’s Derby. The victories are lightly regarded since this horse has run in Japan. Nevertheless, let’s not forget Japan-bred Forever Young finished 3rd in this race last year.
4) Rodriguez (12-1)
This horse prefers to run from the front and get to the rail before the back stretch. Was victorious at the Wood Memorial and has posted a sharp 101 speed rating.
*Special Note
21) Baeza (12-1) As of Monday night, was not in the field. Only the Top 20 horses by points make the Kentucky Derby, and because Baeza was not as highly regarded as others, he didn’t race as often. His strong second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby changed everyone’s thinking with a 101-speed rating. If Baeza can make the field, even coming out of the #20 gate, he can be a factor for a variety of wagers, and reports Monday had him with a quality workout.
Exacta Bets (Finish #1 and #2)
- #8 Journalism and #18 SovereigntyÂ
- #6 Admire Daytona and #8 JournalismÂ
Exacta Box – 2 horses (Finish #1 or #2)
- #8 Journalism and #18 SovereigntyÂ
- #6 Admire Daytona and #8 Journalism
Exacta Box – 3 horses (Finish #1 or #2)
- #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty and #6 Admire Daytona
- #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty and #10 GrandeÂ
Trifecta Bets (Finish #1, #2 and #3)
Using Journalism or Sovereignty in the #1 position. The same two horses could occupy the #2 or #3 slots, depending on who you have on top. From here, you could take a look at any of the other seven horses we mentioned for your preferences.
Please understand, hitting a trifecta or superfecta (exact order 1 to 4) is extremely difficult. A better option for a trifecta is a $1 wheel bet or a $1 partial wheel.
If you like #8 Journalism to win it would like this:
- $1 Trifecta Key: 8 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 (for place and show, random numbers) Cost $6 (six combinations)
If you like #8 Journalism or #18 Sovereignty to win it would look like this.
- $1 Trifecta Part Wheel 8, 18 with 2,3,8,18 with 2,3,4,8, 18 – Cost $24 (24 possible combinations)
Doug’s Picks
- Journalism
- Sovereignty
- Luxor Cafe (if Baeza makes field, place 3rd)
Long Shot Winner: Publisher to Place First at BetOnline
Good Luck to you and enjoy the race!
If you would like to read our article on the complete Kentucky Derby field, you can do so here.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
