Australia and New Zealand go head-to-head in a three-match ODI series from Sunday. It should be highly competitive with the neighbors, never shy of sticking it to one another, going full pelt.
The Aussies, who were thrashed in South Africa last time, are short favourites for success. They are no better than 1.4 with Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral and Marathon. No thanks, we won’t be touching that.
So the Kiwis at 3.25 with Skybet are a fair wager. Sure, Australia are better but they are hardly a happy camp of late and New Zealand are always highly organised and competitive. Simply, the gulf is not as big as the odds suggest.
What really interests us, however, is the top Australian series wicket-taker market. Mitchell Starc is 3.75 jolly with 888Sport and he is as skinny as 2.75 (Betfred). James Faulkner is next best at 5 (Unibet, 32Red) followed by Josh Hazlewood at 6 (Paddy Power), Pat Cummins at the same price, same firm plus Unibet and 32Red, Adam Zampa, the spinner, is at 6.5 (at green-listed bookmaker Unibet) and Mitchell Marsh at 11 (Betfred).
Bizarrely, Australia have dropped John Hastings, their top wicket-taker in the last 12 months. He is said to be “shocked” at the omission. So are we because we were preparing a wager at chunky odds.
So the question is this: is Starc a fair favourite at the odds? Starc is probably the finest white ball bowler in the world and his strike rate of 24.6 is terrific. But he has suffered badly with various injuries over the years, potentially reducing his potency.
He looked in good touch in the last Test against South Africa in Adelaide so no doubt that effort will convince punters he is worth following again.
In terms of actually topping the charts, Starc is consistent. As you can see from the numbers below, he has finished top Aussie bowler in four of his last nine, a sequence going back to 2013 which shows how he has suffered from aches and pains.
This year he roared back in Sri Lanka to outbowl his team-mates with 12 victims, the first time since he finished joint-top bowler in the World Cup with Trent Boult, the Kiwi.
However, in the last 12 months, Starc (20) has as many wickets as Hazlewood and Faulkner while Cummins’ return should not be underestimated. In domestic List A in October he took 15 wickets at 18.60 to finish equal leading wicket taker in the tournament.
What will worry Starc backers is if he will play all three games. In the series below, he has missed at least one in five of them. Still, if he misses a game it is highly likely that none of Faulkner, Hazlewood and Cummins will play all three. They will rotate.
So it could be a two-game shootout. That brings us back to strike rates (wickets per 100 balls). With Starc so much more dangerous, only Cummins’ rate of 26.5 could challenge. Backing both men is a shrewd move.
Top Australia bowlers in recent series:
V Sri Lanka 2016
Starc 12
Faulkner 10
Hastings 9
Tri-Nations 2016
Hazlewood 11
Zampa 10
Starc 8
V England 2015
Cummins 15
M Marsh 8
Maxwell 6
(Starc 5)
World Cup 2015
Starc 22
Johnson 15
Faulkner 10
Carlton Tri-Seres 2015
Starc 12
Faulkner 6
Maxwell 5
V South Africa 2014
Hazlewood 9
Starc, Cummins, Coulter-Nile 5
Zimbabwe Tri-Series 2014
Lyon 7
Starc 6
V West Indies 2013
Starc 11
MacKay 9
Faulkner 8
V Sri Lanka 2013
McKay 8
Johnson 7
Henriques 3
(Starc 3)
Calculators
