Friday gives us our first look at the Adelaide Strikers, who are a big fancy for a Big Bash crown, largely due to the signing of Rashid Khan, the Afghanistan leg-spinner. They take on the Sydney Thunder, who are notoriously tricky to predict.
Rashid is someone we have talked up on these pages consistently and we’ve recommended a top bowler wager, even if he is slated to miss the showpiece if the Strikers make it. And we have to point out some odds on him at BMR’s green-listed bookmakers starting his Australian T20 career with a bang.
The +1400 wager (William Hill) that he picks up the man of the match gong is surprisingly big. He is ninth favourite when he should be top three. The fact that Usman Khawaja is listed as No 2 by some bookies shows how much research the layers are putting in – Khawaja will not play because he is with Australia’s Test squad.
The jolly is Shane Watson. Fair enough. Watson is the skipper of the Thunder and he produced a match-winning effort with the bat in their nail-biting chase in the Sydney derby in the first game of this year’s competition.
But otherwise Rashid has little to beat. Ordinarily there would be a master blaster with the bat who would be well supported on this market. But the Strikers and Thunder are two teams who are not blessed with standout batting talent.
Indeed, we would argue that Strikers are actually one stellar batsman short of making a big impression this season. Thunder, in their win over the Sydney Sixers, also looked weak. Last year they finished bottom. The previous year they won the whole thing. But their lack of talent in this department – having seen their lineup – probably kills their outright chances.
For many of his opponents in this game, Rashid will be an unknown quantity. And that’s how we like it. As the tournament progresses he will be heavily analysed and his threat may reduce so getting with him early on should pay off.
If it’s too much of a risk then we advise the +333 (Paddy Power) that Rashid finishes as Adelaide’s top bowler in the Thunder innings. This is a real steal of a price and he isn’t even favourite – that honour going to Ben Laughlin. Laughlin takes a wicket every 16.4 balls, which is impressive. But Rashid trumps that with a wicket bang on every 16 balls.
As for the match odds, Rashid’s presence and our worries about a feeble Thunder batting lineup make the home team the value selection. Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral are struggling to put distance between the two with -125 odds on Strikers but we think they should be closer to -137.
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