All the rage in the burgeoning industry of football analytics these days is the number of chances a football team creates. Doesn’t matter how many points they have, doesn’t matter what the goal difference is and doesn’t matter what their home versus away record is.
So who are we to argue? The analyst is taking over the modern game. You are not worth your salt as a football club in today’s world if you don’t have an office full of boffin types coming up with complex algorithms to ensure victory on a Saturday afternoon.
So we thought it might be worthwhile to apply the chances created stat – the analyst’s sweetheart – to betting odds to decipher some value in the Champions League. We have listed each team’s total chances created, the goals scored and then, the number we really like, their chance per goal scored in this season’s competition. We reckon the lower number the better, obviously.
Barcelona 3.75 (Betfred, BetVictor, Betway)
63 chances/26 goals
Chance per goal: 2.3
Dortmund 13 (NetBet)
85/25
Chance per goal: 3.4
Real 7 (William Hill)
98/22
Chance per goal: 4.4
Leicester 29 (NetBet)
45/9
Chance per goal: 5
Bayern 4.5 (William Hill)
125/24
Chance per goal: 5.2
Monaco 19 (Stan James)
78/15
Chance per goal: 5.2
Juventus 9 (William Hill, Betfred, Betway)
95/14
Chance per goal: 6.7
Atletico 11 (Stan James)
88/11
Chance per goal: 8
It is no surprise to see Barcelona as the head of affairs as on this filter they are rightful jollies. They have been drawn against Juventus in the quarter-finals, who are the second bottom in our table.
But there is clear value with Dortmund on chances per goal. They are second only to the Catalan giants and with a tie against Monaco in the last eight, we would fancy them to progress. Monaco are fun going forward but they don’t stick many of them away.
German pragmatism against French flair surely wins. And that makes them the value on the outright for our money at an inflated 13 with NetBet.
As for the other ties, Leicester are unlikely to fear an Atletico team which needs eight chances to score a goal. Leicester needs three less, which is actually superior to Bayern Munich.
Bayern face Real in a contest which demands one of the big boys will leave the competition. That just increases our interest in Dortmund. Okay, they might not win the thing but on these numbers, they look underrated.
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