Suddenly Chelsea are not such dead certs for the Premiership title after their lead was cut to just seven points following a shock defeat against Crystal Palace at the weekend. Tottenham kept up the pressure by beating Burnley, but Man City could only draw with Arsenal, leaving them 11 points behind the Blues. The pressure will be huge on Antonio Conte’s men now and they will be desperate to make a statement by beating Man City at Stamford Bridge.
When these teams met at the Etihad in December, Chelsea recorded an emphatic victory. That was a defining moment in their season: before then they had been talked about as one of many contenders, but from then on they were in the driving seat. They trailed after an hour due to a Gary Cahill own goal, but rallied in the second half and won it thanks to goals from Diego Costa, Willian and Eden Hazard. It was one of the games of the season, and Man City could have won it. Kevin De Bruyne missed a glorious chance before Chelsea went up the other end of the pitch and made it 2-1 through Willian, and Chelsea only made it 3-1 when City pushed up in search of an equaliser.
We can expect another ferociously competitive game at Stamford Bridge this week. Man City’s last two games came against top six games, and both finished score draws. The 2-2 against Arsenal was a fair result in the end, while the 1-1 against Liverpool was a pulsating, thrilling encounter, with chances galore, and it could easily have finished 4-4.
It has to be said that, like Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool are both woeful defensively. All three teams are excellent going forwards and dreadful at the back. Chelsea are excellent going forwards and excellent at the back too. They have only conceded 23 goals all season, compared to 32 for Man City (Liverpool and Arsenal have let in 37 and 36 respectively).
Chelsea will be a lot harder to break down, but Man City really should be able to score in this game. Chelsea have been conceding a lot more of late: they have not kept a clean sheet in five games. A lot of that has to do with the inclusion of Cesc Fabregas: when he is in the team Chelsea play a much more attacking brand of football and leave themselves more exposed as is a direct, positive passer of the ball. Pep Guardiola has not looked like a coach bothered about keeping clean sheets. His philosophy simply seems to involve trying to outscore the opposition in open games where both teams will create lots of chances. He appears to know how limited his defensive options are and simply puts out starting lineups featuring a wealth of attacking talent and hardly any defenders. Against Arsenal, he fielded Sergio Aguero, David Silva, De Bruyne, Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas. Six of his 10 outfield players were attackers. Inevitably they created lots of chances and also let Arsenal have lots of chances. Even against a well-drilled Chelsea side, you would expect a similar outcome, and both teams to score looks a good bet at 5/7 with 188Bet and 13/20 with William Hill. For more value, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is 11/10 with green listed bookmaker William Hill.
Chelsea are favourites to win it but Man City have proved a tough nut to crack recently, so some may be tempted by the 2/1 on offer at Ladbrokes on the draw. But if you think organisation and discipline will trump chaos, then the odds on Chelsea are actually very attractive: 6/4 at Bet Victor.
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