Manchester City go into their title-race clash with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday without Sergio Aguero, their main man up front. It will, by and large, be reported as a blow to their aspirations.
That’s because Aguero is a terrific player. That we don’t doubt. And it is sad to see him stricken and sore following a car crash in Amsterdam which left with broken ribs that will surely keep out for an extended period of time.
However, despite seven goals in eight matches, it would be wrong to claim that City will be weaker without him. Does that sound bonkers? Of course. But statistically, at least, it is absolutely true.
Last season City was a better team without Aguero. They won more games. In 14 matches they won 74 percent of the time without him. As opposed to 51 percent (19 matches) with him.
So before you start to pile on the Blues at 2.6 (Marathon) for the very reason that Aguero will be missing, think again. Likewise, City is not the risky bet they seem at 2.9 (188Bet). The draw is 3.2 (Unibet).
There are better reasons for taking on City, though. Chelsea saved their best performances last season for their more illustrious Premier League opponents, winning five from six at home against top seven sides.
Another stat which is not to be sniffed at is the five wins against top six sides for Blues this season and without conceding a goal. Pep Guardiola’s men, by the way, lost five from six trips to top seven teams last season.
Perhaps a different injury to a different City player could be more significant. The knee injury to full-back Benjamin Mendy is a blow. Mendy became the most expensive defender in the summer after signing from Monaco for £52 million.
He has made City far more solid at the back and they could have done with his presence against a Chelsea team which are dangerous going forward, particularly in the shape of Eden Hazard.
Hazard has had his injury problems but is now considered to be fully fit. He will relish running at City and exploiting some of the gaps that inevitably occur when an opposition is confident themselves about the final third.
The Belgian has scored three goals and set up two in his last five league games against City. He is 7.5 with Boylesports to score the first goal and 3.2 with green listed bookmaker Unibet for a goal at any time.
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