There is a strong flavour of reunion for the big Sunday match in the English Premier League. Chelsea welcome Manchester United to Stamford Bridge. So Jose Mourinho returns to west London and Paul Pogba goes up against his old boss, Antonio Conte. Juan Mata, once a Blue now a Red, is another.
These are the sort of storylines upon which the Premier League thrives. Friends turned foes trying to get one over on the other. Mourinho’s tale, of course, will incur most salivation.
There will be Manchester United fans, and probably some Chelsea ones too, who will convince themselves that this extra dimension gives their team a better chance of winning.
United will win because Mourinho will be desperate to show they were wrong to sack him (twice). Chelsea will be desperate to win because there are still players there who fell out with him.
It is nonsense. Both teams will be trying 100 per cent. Not 110 or 120 as the football parlance goes. It makes no difference whatsoever to the result. And so should not impact how we bet.
Chelsea are 2.25 among Green Listed Bookmakers, United are 3.8 (Coral) and the draw is 3.4 (Bet365, BetVictor).
Twice this past week we’ve analysed United. We got it bang on against Liverpool because we were convinced as to how they would play. Against Fenerbahce we were not convinced and we got it wrong. There’s a lesson there.
So how will United play at Chelsea? Well, pretty similar to the way they did at Liverpool in that bore draw. Hopefully. That means they will once again adhere to Mourinho’s tried and trusted blueprint of going away to an established power. They will wait for a mistake.
There could be one difference from how they played at Liverpool. United may press higher up the pitch, not allowing Chelsea time on the ball. Plenty of hustle will be required from the front men. Chelsea have looked a little vulnerable when opposition teams have tried this tactic this term.
This should mean they can win balls in more advanced areas and put pressure on the Chelsea backline. It makes United a very tempting wager indeed to pinch it.
For those who prefer the Asian handicap, you can get Mourinho’s men with a 0.5 headstart (888Sport, Bet365) at 1.7. But our top-rated wager is United to steal it on the result.
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last ten league and cup games against United and the visitors’ only Premier League win at Stamford Bridge since 2002 came in October 2012. But how relevant are those stats when you consider Mourinho was on the other side for some of them?
Market Watch I
With United a fancy, the correct score market might hold the best value. They are 11 with Bet365 to snatch it 1-0. A 1-0 home win is 8 with BetVictor. The last time these sides met at the Bridge, it was 1-1. This is the most popular score among pundits and the University of Salford’s Sports Analytics Machine (SAM). Unsurprisingly it’s the jolly at 7 with BetVictor and William Hill)
Market Watch II
The eagle-eyed among you will have spotted that Eden Hazard is playing a more central role under Antonio Conte at Chelsea. It’s the No 10 slot, which allows him play just behind, or sometimes ahead of, Diego Costa.
It\’s a far more pivotal role than just being restricted to the left-wing. Hazard was always itching to come inside to make more potent moves. He is loving the new job, one he has perfected for Belgium.
Hazard has three goals in his last three games, two for his country. And Chelsea could be about to see the move pay dividends. We would consider him value at 3.45 (888Sport) for a goal at anytime. That sort of price won’t last long as the goals start flying in.
Calculators
