Crises always seem to come in groups for Arsenal. The manager was already under pressure from his own fans before the first leg of this tie was played and a heavy defeat just made things worse. Now there are reports of a training ground bust-up between some of his players (reports Arsene Wenger has denied) and an ineffectual display against Liverpool which saw Arsenal drop out of the top 4 places.
Bayern Munich have no such issues. Manager Carlo Ancelotti recently celebrated his 1000th game in football management, his side are in their usual spot at the top of the Bundesliga and they go into this game full of confidence after a win against FC Köln.
If you had to take the place of one of these managers right now, I think I know which one it would be.
Of course, Cup games are a great leveler and although this is a 2 legged affair and Arsenal are considerably behind overall, that does not mean that Arsenal could not win on the night, even if they fail to win the war and qualify for the next round.
The odds for the Match Odds market make a fairly interesting reading. Green listed bookmakers seem to be leaning towards a Bayern Munich victory but are fearful of an upset. If we just look at the average odds then Arsenal are available at 3.22 (with 5Dimes having pretty good odds at 3.34), the draw is down at 3.73 and the away win is at 2.17 (with Bet365 are offering 2.2).
The away win option is the most interesting to me as I can see Arsenal pushing for this one, perhaps in a genuine attempt to win the tie, perhaps as a way of saving face with their home support). That could very well backfire as Bayern Munich are an excellent side that can soak up the pressure and hit on the break. At 2.2 with Pinnacle, I think there is some real value there and I’ll be having a small bet on that.
The other area that interests me is the Over/Under market. Arsenal will not want to get rolled over again so even if they need to win the match they will also need to be careful at the back. You can get Under 3 goals at 2.01 with both Pinnacle and 5Dimes and I can’t see any reason for Bayern Munich to try to push the match either.
All in all, I’m expecting Arsenal to be disappointed at the end of this game. The level of disappointment is yet to be ascertained but it is likely to be a tough end to yet another Champions League campaign.
Calculators
