Football fans have endured a long summer without any action of note but all that changes this week with the return of the Championship. The battle to win the £170 million jackpot that comes with earning promotion to the Premier League is set to be extremely fierce this season, but a few frontrunners have emerged. With just three days until the start of the campaign, we analyse the leading contenders to follow in the footsteps of last season’s lucky trio, Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield.
Middlesbrough
Clubs promoted to the Premiership face a choice: invest heavily in a bid to stay up or display frugality. The former is a masterstroke if you get it right and beat the drop, but a disaster if you are relegated in spite of your spending as you will be lumbered with a huge wage bill and will struggle to reach the Premiership again for many years. The latter is a more prudent approach and it has paid off for yo-yo teams such as West Brom in recent years. If you are relegated, you instantly become favourites to win promotion once more as you typically retain the bulk of your squad. Burnley are a strong example: they were promoted, pocketed the £170 million, invested very little of it, were relegated, but instantly went back up and then beat the drop last season. Boro are bidding to “do a Burnley”. They were in the Premiership last season and invested very little of their windfall, so they are in a great position to win the Championship this season as they have kept the bones of a side that was already good enough to be promoted two seasons ago and compete in the top flight last season. They are now comparatively rich in this division and have already spent £40 million to improve their squad this summer. Boro are backed by strong support in a large stadium, while they have recruited a top young manager in Gary Monk. At 7/1 with green listed bookmakers Stan James, and 888 Sport they look a great option to win The Championship and also look a good option to win promotion at 9/4 with Bwin, Stan James and Boyle Sports.
Aston Villa
Villa pulled off a real coup by signing former Chelsea captain John Terry this summer, made all the more impressive by Sir Alex Ferguson’s declaration that he would have tried to sign Terry were he still Man Utd boss. Villa have also bolstered their midfield with the arrivals of Ahmed Elmohamady and Glenn Whelan, and they should be a force to be reckoned with this season, as Jonathan Kodiga will be in the mix for the Golden Boot and they have talent in every department. They are also the biggest club in the division, bigger even than Boro. However, they finished last season in poor form and finished 13th, so it would take a vast improvement to finish in the top two this time around. They could still do with some more creative talent and some younger legs, so the 12/5 on them looks a bit risky.
Fulham
Fulham are 3/1 third favourites to win promotion to the top flight, four seasons after they were relegated. They were the joint top scorers in the division last season but were let down by a poor defensive record, scuppering their chances of automatic promotion. They then lost to Reading in the playoffs. Summer signings Marcelo Djalo and Ibrahima Cisse will help them kick on, but the squad still looks too similar to the one that fell short last campaign.
The Next Wave
There are then four teams priced between 7/2 and 9/2 to go up: Sheff Wed, Norwich, Wolves and Derby. Derby have lost star man Tom Ince, while Norwich have been quiet in the transfer market and have a new manager with no experience at this level, so both look risky, but Wolves and Wednesday look interesting. Wolves are ambitious and have spent big this summer, but they finish 15th last season and their new manager is also new to England, so odds of 9/2 look risky. Of the group, it is Sheff Wed that stand out. Sixth in 2015/16 and fourth last season, if they continue on their upward trajectory they will be promoted this time around. Fernando Forestieri is a big player for them, and signings George Boyd and Jordan Rhodes make them a force to be reckoned with in this division, so they look a great option at 7/2 with Bwin and Unibet.
The Rest
Look further down the list and you will see Sunderland at 11/2 to be promoted and Hull out at 6/1. Both clubs chose the option of investing heavily in a bid to beat the drop and both strategies failed, forcing them into costly summer clear outs. They will have money to spend, however, and they are the two clubs that have been promoted the most times from this division, so those long odds look attractive. Leeds, led by Chris Wood, are a consistent side and also look a good bet at 6/1. But right now the best options are on Boro to win the division at 7/1 and Sheff Wed to be promoted at 7/2.
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