There is something inherently risky about betting any Australian to do well in Asia. The Aussies have an awful record there – one win in 18 – so when their four-Test series against India begins in Pune on Thursday, one could be forgiven for giving their top series runscorer market a swerve.
But there is value there. Big, juicy value, specially on our green listed bookmakers. And it’s not who you think. Or even who you might have heard of. In other words, it’s not David Warner or Steve Smith – Australia’s go-to men with the willow.
The bet is Shaun Marsh, who is a standout 8 with Paddy Power. It’s definitely worth taking on the basis that he won’t have a huge amount of competition. This lot could be as bad as each other.
But first let’s deal with why Warner and Smith are not worth following at prohibitively short prices.
Warner is the second favourite at 3.75 with Bet365. The guy can play. There’s no doubt about that. He’s the fifth-best batsman in the world according to the governing body and he averages 49. On wickets which do not offer much assistance to the bowlers he can be murderous.
But India tracks do offer assistance to bowlers. Chiefly, spin bowlers. India could field an army of them if they liked. And this is where Warner falls down. And where most of his team-mates do, too.
When you filter Warner’s performances to those in Asia only, he averages just 33. That’s a whopping dip. Against Sri Lanka late last year when Australia were thumped 3-0, Warner could only manage to average 27. He scored just one fifty in six attempts.
So why the hell would you back him in exactly the same batting conditions against a superior bowling attack? Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja are the best in the world.
Smith is rated as the No 1 batsman in the world. He is no better than 3.25 with Coral. So how do we get him beat? Well, in exactly the same way as Warner. Although his record is not as bad.
His career average gets 20 runs knocked off it in Asia from 60. That’s pretty significant for a skinny jolly. Against Sri Lanka he showed aptitude for the battle, hitting 247 runs at an average of 41. Indeed, it was enough to give the honours.
But wait. In third in that series was Marsh. So what? You might say. Third is no good. But it was good. He played just the one match and was only 94 runs behind Smith and ten behind second. He got 130 in one innings.
More importantly, Marsh has shown his ability in the warm-ups and looks certain to start the series. He whacked an unbeaten 104 against India A. Smith also scored a ton. These two could be going at it all series, but only one of them is a great price.
Calculators
