New Zealand begin a three-match ODI series against India on Sunday. It is little old David trying to aim a stinging pebble to the temple of a mighty Goliath. Good luck, Kiwis, you will need it.
We don’t mean to sound harsh about New Zealand’s chances. Nor condescending. The fact is that India reduce almost every other nation in the world to minnows when they are offered up on a plate in their home ODI series. India have lost only two at home since October 2009. That’s 17 series.
So the -275 (several green listed bookmakers) about India taking a 1-0 lead seems entirely justified. New Zealand are +262 (Paddy Power). Look, we’re not about to waste your time – and ours – trying to make some inflated guesswork about the Kiwis pulling off a shock sound grandiose. No. Instead, we’ll point you to some little-known value on the top bat market.
Ross Taylor is +400 with Bet365 to outscore his team-mates over the three matches. Value. We’ll snap that up very nicely, thank you.
Taylor, it is true, is part of a sort of Holy Trinity of Kiwi batsmen. There’s him, Kane Williamson and Martin Guptill who are head and shoulders above the rest. In short, they are the three – and only three – who consistently trouble the best in the world.
But Taylor’s star has been on the wane of late. He required an eye operation, lost form and confidence and continued to suffer from the fallout of losing the captaincy to the now-retired Brendon McCullum. But he is now in good shape again and ready to show why he is the most decorated of New Zealand hitters.
Williamson and Guptill are both shorter in the betting on this market but there appears to be little reason for that in terms of long-standing class and reputation. Williamson is +250 and Guptill +275.
They are both good players. In the absence of Taylor runs Williamson has been their Mr Consistent while Guptill has been a master blaster at the top of the order, finishing as top-bat in the World Cup.
But over the last three years Taylor’s numbers still suggest he should be much, much closer in the betting. He averages 55 runs every time he goes to the crease. This is superior to Williamson’s 52 and Guptill’s 48.
He also has superior stats in Asia. This is crucial. It is vital we bet on a guy who we know can cope with the unique conditions that India offer – dry, dusty spinning pitches. Taylor averages just shy of 41. Williamson averages just shy of 42. And Guptill is way down with 26.
Indeed, when you consider those figures you could confident make a case for Taylor being favourite. So we would be very happy to be on a +400 shot.
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