In the wake of Tottenham Hotspur’s defeat by Bayer Leverkusen, there has been much talk about a Wembley hoodoo undermining the north London club’s Champions League aspirations. We didn’t buy it before the game, and we don’t buy it now.
A two-game study for a trend is about as robust as a soggy mince pie. It matters not a jot that Arsenal were also Wembley incumbents for European Cup campaigns in 1998 and 1999 and won just twice. Different players, different manager, different opposition, different era. Utterly irrelevant.
But what are we to make of, seemingly, a genuine jinx? When Tottenham travel to Arsenal on Sunday for the north London derby they will do so with dread. Since May 1993 they have won once in 26 attempts in all competitions.
Different players, different managers (by and large), different opposition, different era. Utterly irrelevant?
It’s tricky. Because a 26-game study for a trend is about as robust as concrete. But common sense dictates it should not matter. How can a result yonks ago impact the here and now for example, Harry Kane, the Spurs striker, was only a month old when the sequence began.
Fast forward a few years to the 2000 league meeting and Arsenal boasted Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira. They’re long gone. So how can that be relevant?
The simple argument is that it can’t. Apart from the fact that it is. Bad runs, historical firsts or lasts or curse – call it whatever you want – somehow spread through the collective psyche of a team and a club. At every turn, they are reminded of it. For the benefactor, the opposite can be true. ‘We never lose to this lot’. The respective emotions are passed on from generation to generation.
In derby games, this is a stronger force that some club you might every now and then. Largely because no one really knows what the head-to-heads say about a meeting of non-rivals. In this sort of heated affair, everybody knows what the score is
And what an advantage. In a period of professional football where no stone is left unturned for the smallest of edges – maybe 0.1 percent – if you have a team taking the field with the confidence that a good record against an opponent gives, it is worth its weight in gold. It may even be a smidgen more than 0.1 percent.
The good news is that you don’t actually have to believe Arsenal have Spurs in a psychological vice. You don’t have to believe that the white-shirted ones turn to jelly when they see the Emirates signs. You just have to believe that, on form, one is doing better than the other.
And anyone who watched the team’s respective outings in Europe this week will attest that Arsenal are good bet and Tottenham are not.
The hosts are at 2 with William Hill to get the win, Spurs are 4.35 among green listed bookmakers and the draw is 3.7 at BetStars.
Arsene Wenger’s team are bristling with confidence after their comeback victory against Ludogorets with Mesut Ozil stealing the show with a sublime winner. It was their tenth win in their last 11.
Tottenham, by contrast, were appalling against Leverkusen. Defensively they were all over the shop, gifting chances as if Christmas had come early. How exactly does that equate to ‘not feeling at home’ at Wembley? It was a basic lack of concentration.
Tottenham haven’t won in six and their unbeaten record in the league surely faces its gravest test. Yes, Kane returns from an ankle injury but it would be a surprise if he was able to hit the ground running.
On fairness, we have to point out another trend. Arsenal are winless in their last four Premier League games against Spurs. Here’s another: they have never gone five league games without a win against Spurs under Wenger.
We are confident that Arsenal will bust the small trend and shore up the big one. They rate the value.
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