Hosts Brazil are the favourites to win the gold medal for football at the Olympic Games and justifiably so. This means everything to them and very little to their opponents so you really would expect them to go on and win it.
It has been a gruelling summer for the world’s elite footballers. A long, hard season was followed immediately by Euro 2016 and Copa America, meaning all the best players from Europe, South America and North America have not had a break in a year. They will be exhausted and very few of them will compete in the Olympics.
The only exception to the rule is Brazil. While Chile, Argentina, Colombia, the USA and various other heavyweights all fielded their best possible teams at Copa America – with Chile going on to beat Argentina on penalties in a tense final – Brazil did not go for it at all. They left out their best players, including Barcelona superstar Neymar, and they were duly eliminated in the group stage after losing to Peru.
The Olympics is the big one for them. They no longer appear to have the squad to really compete with Chile and Argentina in the big tournaments, so they have focused all their efforts on this. It is a shrewd move because they are the host nation of the Rio Games, and football is so deeply ingrained in their culture that it would bathe the nation in a wonderful feel-good factor if they were to win gold.
For that reason they are a short price at all green-listed bookmakers – just 6/5 with Pinnacle – but that is still worth backing as they are likely to steamroller teams. Imagine Man Utd fielding a full-strength team against the under-18 sides of the rest of the Premiership and you might get an idea of the mismatch that is expected to take place. It is not unthinkable that one of the underdogs would provide an upset, but very unlikely.
The second favourites for a smart bet are the Argentina Olympic team, priced at 4/1 with Paddy Power, and that looks a good one to avoid. They will be without superstar Lionel Messi, and there are fears they won’t even be able to raise a squad, with the coach fearing he will only have around 14 players to choose from.
Clubs will not release players after there have already been big summer tournaments and with next season due to start so soon. Most clubs are in preseason training already as the likes of the Premiership and La Liga start in less than a month, and they will not let their players go. It’s the same situation with Euro 2016 winners Portugal and rivals Germany, while Chile and France aren’t competing at all.
Perhaps the greatest threat to Brazil is an outsider from Africa or Asia. Nigeria have a good history at the Olympics and look a decent long shot at 40/1 with William Hill. There has not been a big African summer tournament – it would be far too hot in Africa to play in the summer, which is why the Africa Cup of Nations takes place in the early spring, disrupting domestic seasons – and their players will be rested.
They do not have many superstars and clubs may allow them to go off and represent their country as it is a very patriotic nation. A team like Japan or South Korea could also spring a surprise and look decent at 33/1 and 66/1 respectively with Bet365.
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