There is still five months of the Premier League season to go. But they may as well call it off now. As the sides who are top and bottom are destined for glory and gory respectively. Come on bookies, pay out.
Of course, we can still wager on who will win the title. And who will go down, but the weight of statistical evidence suggests that they layers would be within their rights to shut up shop.
Some might argue that they are doing that with the prices available of Chelsea to win the league and Hull City to go down, but a winner is a winner.
Antonio Conte’s men have won ten games in a row and will sit proudly on top of the table on Christmas Day. So how often do the leaders hang on from such a position?
On initial inspection, there doesn’t appear to be much edge. There have been 24 seasons in Premier League history but only in 12 of those campaigns have the team that was top at Xmas stayed there in May. That’s (gold star for maths) 50 percent of the time. Or even money.
So with the Blues at 1.73 with William Hill, it could be argued they’re not of value. Hold on. We’re not interested what happened 24 years ago. The game has changed. The money has got bigger, the playing field less even and the gulf between sides ever wider.
What is key is recent history. And the fact is that in the last ten season, seven teams top at Christmas have won the thing. And twice Liverpool were the bunch that blew up, which says something very interesting about the Reds mentality. See our roll call below.
In addition, Chelsea were league leaders at Christmas for each of their four title victories in 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10 and 2014-15. So the 1.73 doesn’t look too bad at all, does it?
As for Hull, who went bottom for the first time last weekend, they are doomed and Bet365 go 1.2 that they drop. If you want you could stick Chelsea and Hull in a double which will pay slightly more than even money.
The bottom feeders of the EPL the morning after Santa’s been have dropped in 21 of 24 seasons.
And if you want to be greedy – and who doesn’t at this time of the year – you could stick a relegation treble in for good measure.
We like two bets. A treble of Hull-Swansea-Burnley to go down at 5.5 (Skybet) is very tasty. Burnley are admirable but Sunderland and Crystal Palace might just have a bit too much nous for a scarp.
West Ham are extremely vulnerable as they don’t actually have a way of playing but you may as well just back them at whopping prices to go down instead of a clever treble. They are 13 with Green Listed Bookmaker Bet365, William Hill, Stan James and Paddy Power.
Swansea are as bad as Hull and have now conceded three goals or more in four of their last five. As a double, a Hull-Swans relegation pays 2.20 with Paddy Power.
Who was top at Xmas and what happened?
2015-16: Leicester. Champions
2014-15: Chelsea. Champions
2014-15: Liverpool. Second to Man City
2012-13: Man United. Champions
2011-12: Man City. Champions
2010-11: Man United. Champions.
2009-10: Chelsea. Champions
2008-09: Liverpool. Man United were champions
2007-08: Arsenal. Third. Man United champions.
2006-07: Man United. Champions.
Calculators
