The Merseyside derby is here again and Ronald Koeman is set for his first taste of this old derby. It’s not always a classic but this is a game that often splits households and divides families. It’s a game that is cared about deeply and with Everton pushing for a European slot and Liverpool challenging for the title there is something for each side to fight for beyond local pride.
The previous 4 Everton v Liverpool matches (played at Goodison Park) have all ended in a draw. One of those games was incredibly exciting with both sides getting on the scoresheet 3 times and Daniel Sturridge scoring to claim Liverpool a point in the 89th minute. With both sides under relatively new management and more focused on attack than defense, this could be another good game with chances for both sides. Not that I think we’ll get another 3-3 draw (we aren’t that lucky) but both sides have a good chance of scoring in this one.
Which leads us to look at the Both Teams To Score market. It seems like an obvious bet and predictably the odds on the “Yes” side of the equation are quite low. At 1.62 with William Hill, Bet365 and BetVictor just behind at 1.6, betting on this isn’t going to make you rich anytime soon. As bets go I’d put it just this side of “decent” but not much more than that.
Personally I think there’s more value in the Match Odds market, specifically the odds on the home side. Green Listed Bookmaker Pinnacle is offering 4.24 for an Everton win and regardless of both sides form, those are good odds for a derby match.
Perhaps dutching the home win and the draw (3.75 with BetVictor) is the way to go. I’m not confident enough to double up my stakes to achieve that so I’ll be splitting my standard stake down the bottom and hoping this one doesn’t end in an away win. Of course, the easiest way of doing this is with a Double Chance bet on 1X but you do generally end up with lower odds doing that.
I’m certainly not going to go down the Asian Handicap route as Everton +0.5 is only at evens with Pinnacle and I wouldn’t be interested in giving them a negative handicap.
Derby games are tough ones to bet on and because of that, I will definitely be keeping my stake low on this one. I think Everton have the tools to win it but it could be a tight game or it could be full of goals. If Liverpool is in form then they could run away with it. There are too many options to really say (with confidence) “Team X will win”.
I’m going to be going with a straight bet on an Everton win, it will only be small and I’ll write it off before the game starts but if it comes in, I’ll be a happy man.
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