On reputation, one could be forgiven for reckoning that Southampton hosting Leicester City at the St Mary’s Stadium on Sunday for the lunchtime kick-off would be a bit of a ding-dong affair. Two thrusting sides who like to have a go at pace.
Not so. This could be a bit of snoozefest with both outfits struggling. There’s not a huge amount to like about Saints and Foxes at the moment.
And that’s probably why the draw should be a warm order. As kick-off approaches we expect that to shorten considerably – a classic case of punters deciding these two are as mediocre as each other so plumping for them to cancel each other out.
Soton are 1.85 (at both of this green listed bookmakers BetVictor and William Hill), Leicester are 5.25 (Bet365, Betway) and the stalemate is 3.5 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Stan James).
First up, we have to advise that Southampton are some of the worst value we’ve seen this term. A glance at the formbook doesn’t give the whole story. Sure, they’ve lost one of their last four. But look a little closer and once you’ve filtered out cup matches you’ll spot they are on the brink of five consecutive Premier League defeats. That would equal a club record.
One reason for their woes is inconsistency. In selection. Manager Claude Puel is yet to play the same XI this term. How on earth are team-mates meant to gel and find the rhythm if they play with one guy this week and another the next?
Unsurprisingly, this lack of cohesion has led to a lack of goal action. They have failed to score in their last three league games, have the lowest shot conversion rate in the section and, of course, are without the talismanic frontman Charlie Austin.
Automatically then we have to peruse the over and unders market. Under 2.5 is no better than 1.7 with Marathon. That’s not the sort of price which floats our boat. Under two is 2.1 with 10Bet.
That tempts us. But we’re worried about Leicester’s leaky backline. They’ve already conceded more this term than they did in the whole of last season’s title-winning effort.
Still, there are signs the Foxes are looking cunning again. They produced a good effort up at Everton in the FA Cup and they are on a run of seven games without a defeat. Claudio Ranieri has given them a rocket and they might have responded.
One stat which could be viewed as a negative is their failure to win away at all in the league so far. But does that mean that run can’t go on? Does it make it more likely to end as each game passes? For the latter, we’ll say yes.
We’ll take the odds on Leicester to get a scrappy victory on the match odds. For correct score fans, a 2-1 win might appeal at 19 with Bet365. Otherwise, have a saver on the 1-1 draw. The 7.5 with BetVictor is a good price indeed.
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