Saturday 5th November
In the last six autumn series, the southern hemisphere have won 40 Tests and lost 11 matches and the monthly long series of matches begins this weekend with two games.
Wales v Australia
Saturday 2.30pm
Wales begin a four-game autumn program, following their summer tour to New Zealand where they performed well but lost 3-0. Wales have lost their last 8 matches against Australia but are presumed by many to have a really good chance here to break that run and record a win. They will have to do so though without two key components. Captain Sam Warburton is recovering from injury and talismanic No 8 Toby Faletau is out too.
Wales’ style of play has been under the microscope as it has been for a few seasons quite one dimensional, relying on exceptional defense and a fine kicking game to win matches. This has rarely proved sufficient against the best sides, though. Signs in the summer were that Wales were ready to take that next step and this is the first big teat against a beatable opponent
Australia reached the World Cup Final last year before being overpowered by New Zealand. Including that game, they have only won three times in the last 11 fixtures, By Australia’s standards, that is a very poor record.
The run is booked either side with defeats to old foe New Zealand, but three losses this summer to England were not expected. They meet the four 4 home nations plus France on this tour
Back-row powerhouses David Pocock and Michael Hooper are masters of the breakdown and Cheika has found a way of putting them into the same side by playing Pocock at number eight. Pocock broke his hand during the Rugby Championship and only just returned against New Zealand as a replacement last weekend. Israel Folau is one of the most dangerous full-backs in world rugby and typifies the Wallaby style, flamboyant and prepared to take risks.
Age-old problems at the scrum still exist and that is an area Wales will seek to exploit.There are also question marks over the locks, with many Wallaby supporters reckoning their team is soft in the boilerhouse.
Australia have been priced up as marginal favourites for this match at 5/6 with 11/10 available about Wales and there is little in it on the points spread, Wales +1 is the quote. With Wales’ absentees and Australia battle ready after a summer of playing the All Blacks, my preference is for Australia at 5/6 with Bet365. Should be a close match, though, likely to be one score in it.
Ireland v New Zealand,
Chicago 4pm local time Saturday
The first of four Autumn internationals for Ireland, six nations winners for two years but supplanted by England last year in an injury-hit rebuilding season for them. They have named six uncapped players in a 34 man squad for this autumn and all the main names are present notably fly-half Jonny Sexton and an excellent back row.
Ireland have never beaten the All Blacks but were seconds away from winning the last time the two sides met in Dublin in 2013. They were leading by five points having taken a 19-0 lead in the first half but lost late on
Clearly, in world rugby, there is a big gap now between New Zealand, who last weekend set a world record for consecutive test victories with 18, and the rest. New Zealand have picked their strongest available squad and on neutral ground should be too strong for the Irish, who come to the match off a 2-1 series defeat in South Africa during the summer.
Ireland are available at 10/1+ for this match and +22 on the handicap among Green Listed Bookmakers. Difficult not to see New Zealand, tuned up by a summer of refining their patterns of play, scoring 40 points plus so the question is will Ireland scored 20 points plus and cover? Well boot of Sexton apart its difficult to see them scoring many tries here, so I like 10/11 New Zealand -22 at 10/11 with Bet365.
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