South Africa and Sri Lanka meet in a three-Test series from Boxing Day and it could be an extremely one-sided affair. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find any value.
The hosts are as short as 1.08 with Bet365 to win the series with the Lankans at 21 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes). The draw is 11 with Ladbrokes.
So it is clear there is a huge gulf between the teams. It is justified and we cannot see any other results than a South Africa success.
The best way to make it pay is to have a wager on the correct score. And a whitewash is the best advice. You can get 2 with Green Listed Bookmaker Bet365 that the Saffers win all three. Ordinarily, we would shy away from suggesting one team would be so dominant but the choice of venues is unkind on the tourists.
The first game is at Port Elizabeth, a bowler-friendly venue where only once has an opposition team scored more than 300 in the last five Tests. It assists seam and swing bowlers, which will cause much fretting in the Sri Lankan ranks because they have been schooled on the opposite.
Then game two is in Cape Town. Fortress Cape Town. South Africa have lost only four times there since 1993 (all to powerful Australia sides). So South Africa should be an even-money chance going into the final Test of the series in Johannesburg.
This is another horrible test for Sri Lanka. They could face a bouncy track up in the Highveld where fast bowlers will appear quicker because the air is thinner. The ball travels faster. It is another alien examination.
There is also a spot of value on the top Sri Lanka batsman market. Angelo Mathews is the 4.33 jolly with Bet365, followed by Dinesh Chandimal at 4.5 (Coral), Kusal Mendis at 5 (Bet365) and Dimuth Karunaratne at 6 (Bet365).
Mathews is not a great favourite in our book because his form over the last two years away from home has not been worthy of such a lofty position. And that is crucial.
When betting on this market it is irrelevant what the Lankans have done at home. We want to know how many runs they have scored when on tour, when out of their comfort zone. And Karunaratne comes out on top.
He has the most runs and the best average. He also managed a half-century in a warm-up in Potchefstroom. Karunaratne should be second favourite behind Chandimal, who has class and experience. He is second to Karunaratne on those away run lists.
Hashim Amla is 3.6 with Bet365 to finish as South African top series runscorer. And we can’t argue with that. AB De Villiers is out so he very little to beat. His run making has dwarfed that of his teammates in the last two years at home.
Calculators
