While the fourth round of the FA Cup officially starts on Friday with the Derby v Leicester game it doesn’t really get going until the next day when there are a number of matches that catch the eye.
The evening game of Southampton against Arsenal is probably the most attractive tie of the round as two Premier League clubs face up against each other in a match that could reveal each clubs intentions for the rest of the season.
Southampton currently sit just outside the top 10 but look to be staying away from the relegation dogfight at the bottom of the league. That means they have a “stick or twist” situation. Do they go for it in the Cup knowing that a few more wins could see them in the Europa League next season or do they concentrate on the league and reap the financial rewards that come with a higher finishing place in the league? They will have also just played a second leg tie against Liverpool in the League Cup.
Arsenal have got themselves into second place but with their continued involvement in the Champions League can they really afford to split their concentration across 3 competitions? They’ve got a tough tie against Bayern Munich coming up and the extra rest that comes with not playing in the FA Cup could be a boost to their chances in the league as well.
I don’t think either side would go out to lose, professional footballers and managers don’t think like that, but there will certainly be a temptation to “rest” certain players and give some squad members a chance. These two sides won’t be the only ones to consider it, check out some of the other starting XI’s this weekend and I’m sure you’ll see a few big names given some time off (will Rooney start against Wigan?).
These two have already faced each other twice this season, once in the League and once in the League Cup. Arsenal picked up the win in the League but Southampton prevailed against a much changed Arsenal side in the League Cup.
Going by the stats from the league Arsenal should be able to win this one. The away side have the better league record, form, attack and defence. If they play their full side then they should win, if they rotate then things get a lot more interesting. I’m not prepared to play anything in the Match Odds market right now due to the uncertainty, I want to look at the line-ups first, once those are in then I probably will get involved. Until then I’m only placing one bet and that’s a bet on Over 2.5 goals. Pinnacle and Ladbrokes are at the top end of the market with odds of 1.88 on this being a fairly high scoring game. Even with rotated players I expect 3 goals to be scored and the 1.88 gives us some value in my opinion.
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