Matches as follows, all prices are William Hill’s.
5.30pm Worcestershire v Lancashire
Worcestershire have had a very disappointing start to this year’s competition, losing their first three games. Their batting line up posted a competitive looking 180+ against Derbyshire on Wednesday but their opponents still won with ten balls to spare.
It doesn’t get any easier for the hosts here as Lancashire are a high powered side with Buttler and an explosive batting order likely to enjoy a small ground. Lancashire have won two and had one game abandoned in their first four games and they sit in third place in the early North Group table
Odds here reflect this current form. Worcestershire at home are 11/10 underdogs, Lancashire 8/11 favourites. Even accepting the possibility of mean reversion (Worcestershire have to fire soon) its difficult to look beyond Lancashire here.
5.30pm Somerset v Gloucestershire
Somerset at home are a dangerous prospect. It is a small big scoring ground and big totals can be difficult to defend, especially when their overseas pro Corey Anderson comes off. Somerset have had an inconsistent start to their campaign, winning one and losing two (one abandoned) of their four games.
Unfashionable Gloucestershire have won three out of four matches and in their last game pulled off another surprise when defending 138 to beat Kent at Canterbury helped by overseas seamer Thisara Perera.
In this form to see the match priced up at evens each of two is interesting. Glouceshire should probably be favourites and be supported here.
6.30pm Leicestershire v Northants
Leicestershire have played three, won three and after the time of writing play away on Thursday night at Durham with a favourite’s chance of going four out of four.
Defending champions Northants started with a home loss but have won to of their next three games with the third game abandoned. They are still a very dangerous side with big hitters, canny bowlers and they belie expectations on an annual basis
Again this match is priced as a pick-em, 10/11 each of two. In this local derby that is probably fair enough. No bet.
6.30pm Notts v Derbyshire
Notts, pre-tournament favourites have lost their opening two games, both high scoring encounters and one of their key T20 batsmen Michael Lumb has just been forced to retire through injury. Notts wouldn’t have been expecting to come into this local derby with the visitors second in the North group table having won three games out of four
Derbyshire played away in midweek at Worcestershire and their chase of 186 (with 10 balls remaining) is their second highest run-chase in the competition, ever. They are certainly a more competitive team in the format having invested in the overseas part of the playing squad this year.
Prices here feel a bit “historic”, justified on past form and “size” of club but not necessarily on what we have seen this year. Odds are Notts 4/6 and Derbyshire 5/4.At 5/4 Derbyshire are a value bet.
6.30pm Yorkshire v Warwickshire
Yorkshire have won two of their first four games and would have expected a better return with their squad containing a former top run scorer in the IPL Shaun Marsh and England’s Bresnan and Rashid alongside a conveyor belt of young talent
Warwickshire are another side struggling for consistency, having won two of four games. 4. One of most experienced sides with the likes of Ian Bell and Jeetan Patel capable of differentiating performances, they too would expect to be near the top of the group.
Odds here see Yorkshire 4/5 and Warwickshire 6/5. Yorkshire at home should be favoured.
6.30pm Glamorgan v Sussex
Glamorgan have won two of their first four games with one game abandoned. In Colin Ingram they have one of the early stars of this year’s competition with scores of 101*and 114 in matches so far. Pitches in Cardiff tend to be slow and low so having his power is a big advantage in compiling totals.
Sussex play on Thursday night at Hampshire and go into the match with one point, from an abandonment, from their first three games. They have experience in the likes of Luke Wright and Ross Taylor but possibly lack some depth in the rest of the team
Glamorgan are 4/5 here, Sussex Evens. Facing a side with a tough travel schedule I prefer Glamorgan here.
6.30pm Surrey v Middlesex
This is the reverse fixture of the match which Middlesex won at Lords 10 days ago, chasing 155 to win.
On Wednesday night Surrey, led by the returning Kevin Pietersen’s 30 ball 50, scored 150 and defended it to beat Essex by ten runs and are temporarily at least up to third in the South Group table with three wins out of five games.
Probably the big name team in the competition they are stuffed full of match-winners and usually over-bet/priced short for any individual match as a result
Middlesex play on Thursday night at home to Kent. So far this season they have won win and two losses in their first four matches. They have a sensational top four on paper in McCullum, Stirling, Malan and Morgan but not matched so far but bowling resources.
Odds here are Surrey 4/5 Middlesex 6/5 and Middlesex tempt me at the odds in our green listed bookmakers.
7.00pm Essex v Hampshire
Essex lost away at Surrey on Wednesday and with one win in their first five matches are one of THE big disappointments of the fledgling season.
Hampshire meanwhile have played three won three ahead of hosting Sussex on Thursday night. With their Kolpak players added to effective overseas pros they have a lotof talent which is in great form
Chelmsford in Essex is a small high scoring ground but with the two teams in this relative form its not surprising to see odds of Essex 6/5 Hampshire 4/6. Essex at 6/5 would normally be a bet here, but a watching brief for me.
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