At the start of the season, I put some money on Arsenal ending up Premier League champions. I looked at the strength of their squad, reasoned they would buy a commanding central defender and a combative midfielder (they did both of these). As always I wrote the money off as lost the moment I placed the bet (that way I’m pleasantly surprised when they win) but always stay on the lookout for when I can trade that bet out. I think I’m almost there.
Watford did not figure on my list of potential title winners (nor to my shame did Chelsea) mainly because I thought they would be irrelevant to the title race and unlikely to be relegated. That’s pretty much where they’ve ended up. Their owners have invested into the squad with big ticket players like Isaac Success and Roberto Pereyra coming into the club along with a host of others but it hasn’t really taken them on too far and if they end up in a similar position to last season’s finish of 14th (their current position) I’m sure they’ll be delighted.
So putting these two together seems likely to finish only one way, the bookies seem to think so too and that makes our lives difficult. I’m not betting on an Arsenal win at 1.25 as I just don’t think that’s good business. Even going into the Asian Handicap market isn’t particularly appealing unless you want to give Watford a decent advantage. Watford +2 is 1.82 with Pinnacle and Arsenal -2 is at 2.13 (both with Pinnacle). If you want to play in the handicap markets then you either need Arsenal to overcome a significant handicap or have enough faith in Watford (away from home remember) to hold onto our fictitious lead.
The Over/Unders aren’t a whole lot more appealing. Over 2.5 is around 1.52, Under 2.5 is about 2.51. I’m not going to be betting on unders in this game but to get anything near decent odds we’ll need to go to Over 3 which is at 1.87 with green listed bookmaker Pinnacle.
That’s probably about the best bet on offer right now in all reality as this is a match the bookies have sewn up quite tight. I can see Arsenal getting 3 goals at home so this bet could rely solely on Watford getting one. If Arsenal gets their 3 then this bet is void at worst, anything after that is a bonus.
It’s not an easy game to bet on and I’ll be keeping my stakes low but with Xhaka suspended, Cazorla injured and Coquelin not match fit I do feel this could be an open match and this Watford side has been known to ship goals away from home (6 against Liverpool, 4 against Spurs) so I’m reasonably confident in its chances.
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