Like a hot dog without mustard and a Donald Trump speech without a theatrical flourish of the right hand, it seems inconceivable that Argentina would not be present at a World Cup finals.
But that is the prospect as they head into their must-win match against Ecuador away from home on Wednesday. A failure to win and Russia 2018 will not be visited by the great South American team. And, of course, it means no Lionel Messi, the best player in the world.
Not surprisingly Argentina have been well-backed for victory. And there’s some psychology at play here. They have failed only once to make it to the finals – and that was in 1970. Considering that most doing the betting will not even have been alive then, it is fair to say that they are not wagering on a Black Swan event because it just doesn’t compute.
Argentina are 1.4 (Unibet) for the win with Ecuador 8.1 (Marathon) and the draw is 4.8 (at green listed bookmaker Unibet). First of all, let’s be clear: we think Argentina are going to win. And that has nothing to do with 1970 and everything to do with Argentina being a better team than Ecuador.
Yes, we get the worries about altitude for Argentina and that being a major factor but it hasn’t always hampered visiting teams. Indeed, Argentina are acclimatizing three days ahead of the action so they shouldn’t be at too much of a disadvantage.
But we guess you don’t really need to be told that a 1.4 shot is better than a 8.1 chance. So for those who need more scientific reasons for the suggestion, how about this.
Argentina have largely struggled in qualifying because the opposition have ‘parked the bus’. This is the tactical colloquialism for sticking ten men behind the ball. Argentina have been frustrated by a lack of space and time to create chances.
Uruguay, Venezuela, and Peru all deployed the tactic in Argentina’s last three games forcing stalemates that have derailed a qualifying bid which was on course.
Ecuador, who have lost their last three, are probably not going to play like that. Nothing is riding on this game for them so they are expected to be more attacking. Or perhaps we should say, less negative without the ball.
So instead of just betting Messi’s men for a straight win, we are happy to get with them to win more comfortably. A 2-0 win is rated at 7 with William Hill. And we don’t doubt, by the way, that it will be Messi who pulls the strings. He is 3.6 (Unibet) to score first and 1.8 with the same to score at any time.
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